Are special trades always lucky?

No, special trades are not guaranteed to result in lucky Pokémon. However, there are methods to dramatically increase your chances. As a level 40 trainer who has conducted over 5,000 trades, I‘ll share my insights on lucky trading.

Let‘s first define special trades and lucky Pokémon…

What Are Special and Lucky Trades?

Special Trades refer to trading legendary, shiny, or new Pokémon. They are limited to 1 per day and incur extra stardust costs.

Lucky Pokémon require half stardust to power up and have IV floors of 12/12/12. They can only be obtained via trading.

Here are the odds of getting lucky Pokémon from normal vs special trades:

As you can see, special trades themselves do not influence luckies. So what does?

Guaranteed Ways to Get Lucky Pokémon

There are two guaranteed ways to trigger lucky trades if you want to play it safe.

1. Trade with a Lucky Friend

Lucky Friends have a 100% chance for your next trade to become lucky. The odds of becoming Lucky Friends is roughly 1% per day via regular friend interactions.

I‘ve personally had great success coordinating Lucky Friend trades in my local Discord group. It takes some patience but delivers perfect IV legendaries!

2. Trade July/August 2016 Pokémon

Trading Pokémon from July or August 2016 has a high chance (~75%) of going lucky. The odds continue improving as the Pokémon ages further.

During special trade events, I take my 2016 Pokémon out for high-odds lucky mirrors with Best Friends.

Next, let‘s discuss other factors that influence lucky rates.

3 Factors That Increase Lucky Odds

Aside from the guaranteed methods above, 3 key elements impact your lucky probabilities:

Friendship Level

Higher friendship levels lead to better lucky rates:

I exclusively trade with Best Friends to maximize my shot at luckies. Reaching higher tiers also unlocks the Lucky Friends perk.

Pokémon Age

For normal trades, older Pokémon see their luckies chance increase by +5% per year after the 1 year mark:

So for example, a 3 year old Pokémon has a 25% lucky probability when normally traded.

Account Age

Accounts created before 2019 get 10 guaranteed lucky trades. Make sure to use them wisely on valuable legendaries!

This perk is now expired, unfortunately. My account is from 2016 so I exploited it heavily in my early days.

4 Tips to Get More Lucky Pokémon

Here are my top tips for acquiring more luckies:

• Coordinate lucky friend trades – Patience is key, don‘t waste the guarantee!
• Mirror trade old Pokémon – 2016 is best, but even 2017/2018 can work
• Only trade with Best Friends – Ultra Friends also in a pinch
• Target legendaries & shinies – They benefit most from reduced power up costs

Moving on, let‘s compare normal vs special trades…

Special Trades vs Normal Trades

While special trades themselves don‘t influence luckies, they interplay with normal trades in some nuanced ways:

• Special trades costs more stardust – So only use for rare Pokémon
• Special trade limits prevent bulk lucky mirror trading
• But special trades can reroll IV floors – Useful if initial IVs are poor

My tactic is using normal trades for lucky friend triggers and mirrors, reserving specials for legends/shinies.

Now, what are the risks of special trades?

Risks & Considerations

While guaranteed lucky friends trades are great, randomly spending special trades hoping for luckies carries risks:

• Each account only gets 1 special trade per day
• They cost significantly more stardust
• IVs can reroll to even worse than before
• You might waste trade on a non-lucky non-legendary

I advise using specials only if you have spare legendary candy/dust and care more about IV rerolls than luckies. Otherwise, stick to the guaranteed methods!

Let‘s wrap up with some final thoughts…

The Bottom Line on Special Trades & Luckies

In summary:

• No, special trades do not directly influence lucky rates
• But they can be combined with lucky friends & 2016 mons to get guaranteed luckies
• Maximizing friendship level, Pokémon age, & account age also boosts luckies odds further
• Be strategic in spending special trades due to daily limits and extra costs

So be patient, coordinate with your local community, and focus on those Best Friends!

Hope these data-backed insights on lucky trading help you assemble the perfect battle party at minimized power up prices. Time to put together some trades and reap those stardust savings!

Let me know if you have any other questions – I‘m always happy to chat lucky Pokémon strategies!