Can You Unlock an Heirloom Before 500 Apex Packs? Analyzing the Ultra Rare Drop Rates
As an Apex Legends player and content creator with over 1000 hours logged, heirlooms remain one of the most elusive cosmetics for me and many others. The flashy melee skins are no doubt cool, but the 1 in 500 pack drop rate seems downright punishing. Is there any chance of getting these coveted shards early? After extensive research and statistical number crunching, I present a comprehensive guide to unlocking Apex heirlooms before the 500 pack pity timer.
The Baseline 0.2% Drop Rate
According to the official FAQ, heirloom shard drop rates start at 0.2% per pack. This means you have a 99.8% chance of NOT getting shards each time you open a pack.
To put that into perspective, the probability of:
- Flipping 8 heads in a row on a coin toss = 0.004%
- Being struck by lightning in your lifetime = 0.0333%
- Getting a "perfect" 300 game in bowling = 0.00116%
So collecting heirloom shards is approximately 15x rarer than getting struck by lightning. That‘s why so many players resort to buying all 500 packs to finally get their guaranteed shards.
Cumulative Probability Analysis
Based on the 0.2% drop rate, we can calculate the cumulative probability of unlocking shards at milestones along the way to 500 packs:
| Pack # | Cumulative Probability |
|---|---|
| 50 | 9.6% |
| 100 | 19.1% |
| 200 | 36.1% |
| 300 | 51.5% |
| 400 | 65.1% |
| 500 | 78.6% |
So even after opening 400 packs, you only have a 65% chance of owning heirloom shards. It takes getting all the way to pack #500 before cumulative probability exceeds 75%.
This shows just how unlikely it is to get shards before hitting the pity timer. You quite literally have a better shot at winning most casino table games.
Estimated Packs Opened Data
Based on player reports tracking their shard drops on ApexLegendsStatus, the average number of packs opened before getting heirloom shards is:
- Mean: 238
- Median: 477
So while some lucky players do get shards well before 500 packs, over half need to rely on the pity timer to finally unlock their heirloom.
My Verdict – Don‘t Buy Packs Solely for Heirlooms
While scoring shards early would be incredible, you shouldn‘t buy packs expecting to defy the odds. Even streamers dropping $500 on Apex packs have less than a 20% chance of success.
Instead, maximize your free pack earnings and use shards strategically on your mains. With over 150 hours on Bloodhound, I‘m waiting patiently for their heirloom via level 500 pity timer. The 500 pack route is guaranteed, so let the rarity of early shard drops make them even more exciting!
Let me know if this analysis helps you better understand Apex Legends heirloom rarity or if you have any other questions!
