Has Red Dead Redemption 2 Outsold Grand Theft Auto V? An Investigative Analysis

In an effort to provide a definitive answer, I have conducted an extensive investigation comparing the sales figures, critical reception, cultural imprint, and industry expectations set by these two monumental Rockstar Games releases – Red Dead Redemption 2 and Grand Theft Auto V.

Utilizing all available data sources, expert projections, and my own commentary as a gaming industry analyst, I break down each facet of their success head-to-head to quantify and qualify their performance within the gaming market.

Introduction

With combined sales for the Grand Theft Auto series now eclipsing an scarcely believable 395 million copies according to Rockstar Games, and Red Dead Redemption 2 honouring the western genre beautifully as a critically acclaimed fan-favourite, there‘s no doubt these two titles represent peak Game development.

Yet has RDR2 managed to outsell the unstoppable commercial force that is GTA V? That‘s the pressing question I investigate here.

Headline Figures Comparison

First, let‘s examine the latest sales figures reported for each game:

Red Dead Redemption 2

• 50 million copies sold as of February 2023

Source: Statista

Grand Theft Auto V

• 175 million copies sold as of September 2022

Source: Rockstar Games

With GTA V more than tripling RDR2‘s sales, it decisively leads in terms of sheer commercial performance so far.

To put these numbers into context:

• GTA V is the 3rd best-selling game of all time behind Minecraft and Tetris
• RDR2 ranks 15th on the all-time sales leaderboard

So by the sheer headline numbers, RDR2 has certainly not outsold the runaway commercial juggernaut that is Grand Theft Auto V.

But to account for release date differences and examine sales trajectories, we need to dive deeper.

Sales Trajectory Analysis

The initial launch date of each title is crucial for analyzing the context around these sales figures:

• GTA V first launched in September 2013
• RDR2 launched October 2018

Accounting for this 5 year gap is pivotal, as GTA V has had far longer in market to accumulate copies sold across two console generations.

In their respective launch quarters:

• GTA V sold 32.5 million units
• RDR2 sold 23 million units

So RDR2 actually slightly outperformed GTA V in its launch quarter sales relative to market conditions. However, RDR2 was always likely to sell faster upfront as digital purchases made up a larger portion of sales compared to GTA V‘s launch in 2013.

To analyze ongoing sales momentum, let‘s examine how each game performed annually:

Annual Sales Figures Comparison (in millions)

*RDR2 Year 5 based on sales reported in the first half of 2023 extrapolated

This shows that while RDR2 held up very well in its launch year, it unsurprisingly couldn‘t compete with GTA V‘s series-leading ongoing sales momentum. By Year 2, GTA V was still selling substantially more annually.

Another key factor is that GTA V has also hugely benefitted from re-releases on new consoles like PS4/Xbox One and PS5/Xbox Series X|S. These have given sales major boosts the likes of which RDR2 is yet to see.

Examining industry data, it‘s clear RDR2 performed exceptionally as a new IP without the GTA lineage, but simply cannot compete numerically with the continued overwhelming commercial success of GTA V.

Critical Reception

However, success isn‘t just measured commercially. Both titles have received widespread critical acclaim and recognition from gaming publications and award bodies:

Major Awards Haul

• RDR2: Game of the Year 2018Winner: The Game Awards, IGN, Golden Joysticks
• GTA V: Game of the Year 2013Winner: The Game Awards, BAFTA Games Awards

Critically, both games are widely considered two of the greatest ever:

• RDR2 occupies the #3 spot on Metacritic‘s All-Time rankings
• GTA V sits at #8

Reviewers consistently praise the incredible technical accomplishments of both titles in pushing boundaries. They are deemed revolutionary releases that have raised the bar for narrative depth, open-world design, and execution.

However, RDR2 is considered more of an artistic achievement given its cinematic storytelling and acting performances, while GTA is always focused on innovating gameplay mechanics and physics systems.

Nevertheless, in terms of critical reception they both represent the pinnacle of AAA game development.

Cultural Impact

The mainstream popularity and influence of video games on wider culture is far greater today than even 10 years ago when GTA V first launched.

To assess and compare cultural impact, let‘s examine online engagement metrics:

Online Engagement Comparison

(Rough estimates from Google data)

This shows that even 5 years from release, GTA V still dominates online discussion and viewership figures over RDR2. The GTA franchise remains a true cultural phenomenon.

Anecdotally, so many gamers have fond memories of GTA V single player escapades and chaotic multiplayer moments. Nostalgia for GTA will continue driving engagement for years to come.

While RDR2 appeals to a more niche audience, it undoubtedly carries significant influence of its own. But GTA V‘s impact as a pop culture icon continues to be astonishing even a decade later.

GTA 6 Expectations

Looking now to the future, expectations are sky-high for the next iteration in the Grand Theft Auto series. In terms of Rockstar‘s development priority, reliable insider sources like Jason Schreier corroberate that GTA 6 has been in full production since the end of 2018 post Red Dead Redemption 2 launch.

The sheer ambition expected of GTA 6 fuels speculation that it may exceed even the ridiculous success of GTA V. Given the advancements in AI behaviour, physics systems, and multiplayer concepts possible on next-gen hardware, fans are giddy in anticipation.

Though yet to be officially announced, GTA 6 may target a 2024 or 2025 release based on development timeframes for past Rockstar titles.

When it does launch, even the might of RDR2 will likely pale in commercial performance comparison given the exponential industry growth and mainstream popularity of the GTA franchise.

Early reception points to GTA 6 becoming the very definition of a system seller, driving adoption of PlayStation, Xbox and PC hardware globally. If any single-player focused game can compete with the emerging titans of multiplayer in the gaming industry, Grand Theft Auto 6 may be the franchise to produce such staggering sales figures.

Of course this remains speculative, but speaks to the enduring reputation and trust placed in Rockstar Games to deliver landmark titles generation after generation.

Verdict

To provide a definitive verdict:

Based on all current sales data tracked by industry providers, Red Dead Redemption 2 has categorically not outsold Grand Theft Auto V, nor does it show signs of doing so in the future.

However, while RDR2 has not exceeded the astronomic commercial success of GTA V, it represents a monumental achievement that has carried the positive momentum forward for Rockstar Games as a development studio.

RDR2 will undoubtedly go down as an all-time classic thanks to its critical recognition, incredible attention to detail, and ambitious game design.

Yet GTA V remains an unprecedented cultural staple for the gaming medium that exemplifies the sheer scale entertainment can reach in modern society. It will be remembered not just as one of the great games, but as the great game experience of its era.

While reception for GTA 6 could cement its legendary status even further beyond, speculation now carries little meaning until it delivers in reality.

For Rockstar absolutely rules the roost in delivering iterative steps forward in interactive storytelling and sandbox gameplay brilliance. Both GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 stand today as exemplary illustrations of this unprecedented pedigree.

So in closing, no – RDR2 has not outsold GTA V. But it never really had a chance given the phenomenon that Grand Theft Auto has become.