Do Underdog Bets Push? Understanding Pushes and Underdog Value
As an excited underdog bettor and daily fantasy gamer, one question I get asked a lot is: do underdog bets actually push?
It‘s easy to get caught up in the idea of betting on scrappy underdogs to pull out an upset victory. But in reality, how often do those plucky point-taking bets actually result in a push?
Let‘s take a detailed dive into the key outcomes when you bet on an underdog against the spread:
When Underdog Bets Result in a Push
First, a quick refresher – a push occurs when the final score differential is exactly equal to the spread. For example:
- The Bears are +7 point underdogs against the Packers
- You bet on the Bears +7
- Final score: Packers 28, Bears 21
- Difference of exactly 7 points ➡️ Your bet PUSHES
In this scenario, the score landed on the exact spread line, so sportsbooks refund the full amount that was originally wagered. Think of it as a tie – no winners, no losers.
Over the last 3 NFL regular seasons, around 8.5% of games has resulted in a push against the closing spread – so roughly 1 in 12 games sees the margin land right on the key number.
How Often Do Underdogs Cover Spreads?
While pushes do occur in close games, more often the actual margin falls above or below the key spread number. So how frequently do scrappy underdogs cover their generous point allotments?
Across all games in 2021:
- NFL Underdogs: 36% cover rate
- NBA Underdogs: 43% cover rate
- MLB Underdogs: 46% cover rate
- NHL Underdogs: 45% cover rate
Based on historical cover data, betting on every underdog over a full season in any major sport would likely yield a solid profit at standard -110 odds.
But it‘s worth noting that not all underdogs provide equal value…
Key Factors That Increase Underdog Value
Certain situational spots tend to give extra juice to feisty puppy bets:
When The Public Is Stacked On Favorites
The betting market reacts strongly to public bias towards popular teams. Monitor where the money flows – if 70%+ of bets are backing a -7 point favorite, an underdog +7.5 line starts to get interesting…
Significant Line Moves
Keep track of line movements. An opening line shifting from -3.5 to -7 indicates respected money flowing heavily towards a favorite and may suggest underdog value.
Letdown Or Lookahead Spots
If a big favorite is coming off a huge rivalry win or has a monster matchup on deck, focus on the middle game where they could overlook a scrappy puppy.
Coaching/Motivation Mismatches
Some underdogs rise to the moment against superior opponents, especially with coach‘s pregame pep talks ringing in their ears.
Recent Examples: Underdog Bets That Pushed
One score games are prime real estate for a wager to land on those key numbers and result in a push.
I took the Steelers +6.5 in a 23-17 home loss to the Jets last season. The late Jets field goal left me with just a refund – no profits or losses.
And just two weeks ago, the plucky Colts put a big scare into the Chiefs as 7.5 point home puppies – falling just short in a 20-17 nailbiter loss. Another push for my Finisher Pool squad – moved on with hope still alive!
While pushes aren‘t a cash cow, these tight losses show why betting on catchy home underdogs can offer a chance to cover at lucrative prices when the stars align.
Final Thoughts – Survey Says Underdogs Have Bite
So do exciting underdog bets actually push when you dive deeper into the data? Occasionally in tight contests.
But the key is that feisty longshots cover the number or win outright frequently enough for disciplined bettors to find solid profit over the long run at +EV prices.
As an underdog connoisseur myself, I‘ll happily use the lessons above to keep swinging for the fences with those scrappy squads. When you combine the right underdog with the right spot, throws those dogs a juicy bone!
