Does Walmart Own Dollar Tree In 2024? (Not What You Think)

With sky-high inflation pressuring shoppers, many wonder if retail giants Walmart and Dollar Tree have joined forces. Despite some key overlaps, Walmart maintains no ownership stake or partnership with Dollar Tree as of 2023.

I‘ve analyzed both companies closely as a retail industry expert. In this article, I‘ll share key stats on each business, examine whether they still compete, and reveal my outlook on challenges facing the dollar store model long-term.

Financial Profile: Dollar Tree vs. Walmart

While Walmart dominates overall market share, Dollar Tree has carved out a niche with $1 price points. But competing business models led to vastly different 2022 financial results.

Data sources: Yahoo Finance, 2021 annual reports

Despite having 95% more stores, Dollar Tree‘s revenues are barely 5% of Walmart‘s. However, Dollar Tree has delivered 25 straight years of positive comp sales growth – an impressive mark during recessions and now record-high inflation.

Meanwhile, Walmart has struggled in 2022 as low-income customers get squeezed. But investments in groceries, automation, and digitization could pay off long-term if executed properly.

Do They Still Compete in 2024?

Dollar Tree and Walmart absolutely compete for value-focused shoppers with constraints on time and money. However, their product assortments only overlap by ~50% despite pricing differences.

Walmart leans into national brands, while Dollar Tree relies heavily on imported generic goods with miniscule profit margins. As import costs have surged amid supply chain chaos, Dollar Tree‘s hallmark $1 price point became unsustainable in many categories.

The retailer raised prices to $1.25 on over half of inventory – a telling shift from the brand identity although technically "dollar store" status remains intact. Some loyalists are frustrated by diminishing selection of true single-price items.

Meanwhile, Walmart promotes "everyday low prices" with price rollbacks on brands shoppers recognize. While Walmart competes on price, Dollar Tree competes predominantly on convenience for fill-in trips.

Do Format Differences Remain?

The in-store shopping experience still differs tremendously between Dollar Tree and Walmart in 2024.

Dollar Tree stores average 8,000 – 12,000 square feet, slotted into strip malls for convenience:

Walmart Supercenters offer everything from produce to auto care essentials under one massive roof:

The scale differences allow Walmart to drive volume discounts even while maintaining wider product assortment than a dollar store possibly could.

Can Dollar Stores Compete Long-Term?

Dollar Treefaces existential questions as its core $1 price point erodes. Shoppers have fled stores with empty shelves and unclear value messaging amid inflation. Compound that with rising rents and labor costs disproportionately affecting their slim margins.

Meanwhile, Walmart leans into scale advantages with automation technology investments, vertically integrated private brands, and robust online grocery infrastructure.

I predict retailers like Walmart and Target will grab more low-income shoppers from dollar stores. Inflation could force Dollar Tree to either reposition its brand more upmarket or get acquired in the next 5 years.

Walmart won‘t acquire Dollar Tree directly due to antitrust concerns. But should performance decline enough, I could envision private equity or even retailer Dollar General bidding for the 16,000-strong store footprint.

Time will tell whether Dollar Tree escapes its challenging corner or falls prey to larger competitors with resources to enhance value perceptions. One thing is certain – Walmart won‘t bail out the struggling chain by acquiring it outright anytime soon.

I‘m Rick Lane, retail industry analyst and author of "Global Retail Power Plays". Opinions expressed here are my own as a retail expert.