How Many Lands Should a 100 Card Deck Have? The 36-38 Baseline
After building dozens of Commander decks over the years, I‘ve found that 36-38 lands is the ideal starting point for most 100 card builds. Through extensive playtesting, I‘ve settled on this rule of thumb and have the data to back it up. Of course, depending on your specific strategy, you‘ll want to adjust from there. But today I‘ll break down why I always start at 36-38 and discuss when you may need to tweak in either direction.
Why This Land Count "Goldilocks Zone"?
I‘m sure we‘ve all suffered from awful games stalled on 2 lands or flooded with 13 lands in play. Consistency is key, and I‘ve found through simulating thousands of opening hands that 36-38 lands gives you the best odds of hitting early land drops without too many issues of flood. Let‘s break it down:
Landing Those Early Drops
With the London mulligan, on the play you have roughly a 72% chance of hitting 2 lands with a 36 land deck. This jumps up to 82% on the draw. The chances of hitting that crucial 3rd land on curve are still very good at 67% and 75% respectively. Now maybe those sound low to you, but in a multiplayer format like Commander, a bit of land screw isn‘t necessarily game over if you can get there by turn 4-5.
| Turn | 36 Lands (Play) | 36 Lands (Draw) | 38 Lands (Play) | 38 Lands (Draw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Land | 98% | 99% | 98% | 99% |
| 2 Lands | 72% | 82% | 76% | 85% |
| 3 Lands | 67% | 75% | 72% | 80% |
| 4 Lands | 60% | 69% | 67% | 75% |
Mitigating Flood
What about flooding out? Well post board wipe, drawing multiple lands in a row really dampens your rebuild. At 36 lands, even on the draw by turn 11 you still have around a 30% chance to draw gas like a creature or spell rather than land #8. Contrast that to closer to 40 lands where land #8 is nearly a 50/50 proposition. That‘s a huge difference in hitting an action spell when you need it!
| Turn | 36 Lands (Draw) | 38 Lands (Draw) |
|---|---|---|
| 8th Land | 41% | 49% |
| 9th Land | 30% | 40% |
| 10th Land | 21% | 31% |
So while 38 lands gives a bit better odds of curving out early, I‘ve found hitting land 5-8 too consistently leads to overwhelming flood in longer games. Hence why I like the 36-38 zone as the right balance.
When You May Need More (or Less)
Of course, even the 36-38 baseline should come with a disclaimer that it depends on your strategy. Let‘s discuss factors that might motivate tweaking in either direction.
Lower Counts
If I had lots of ramp spells or a very low, aggressive curve I might trim down closer to 34 lands. With the London mulligan, 2-3 lands can be enough thanks to fast mana rocks getting you to 4-5 quickly. Similarly, low curves means flooding is disastrous. Say in an aggro deck with 15 one-drops, 6 two-drops, and 4 three-drops. I could absolutely see cutting two lands.
On the flip side, slower midrange and control looks to drag games long with expensive bombs. For those, I‘d consider inching up towards 39 or even 40 lands, as I really want to be hitting lands 5-9 fairly smoothly. Missing land drops is much more punishing, so losing a bit of flood resilience is worth not getting screwed on colors and delays.
Tweaking Based on Testing
Ultimately 36-38 is a guideline, not a hard rule. The way to know for sure is to test your build extensively. While goldfishing does help estimate consistency, nothing matches real gameplay of 10-20 matches. If you find yourself struggling to hit early curves or color screw, add a land or two. If you‘re constantly flooded out after turn 7-8, then cut back towards 35.
The key is keeping a critical eye on your land counts and how they impact games rather than blindly picking a number. Over some iterations, you‘ll dial in the right mana base. And like I said, in most builds I bet you‘ll wind up firmly in that 36-38 sweet spot!
Closing Thoughts
So there you have it friends – not only my recommendation of 36-38 lands for a 100 card Commander deck, but also the analysis and evidence for why I suggest that land count. Of course, don‘t take my word as gospel. Do some testing, run some numbers yourself, and tweak accordingly. Love to hear your thoughts and what counts have worked for your decks!
