How Many Matches Does a Team Need to Make Playoffs?

As an avid sports fan, one of the most common questions I get from friends each season is "How many games (or points) does my team actually need to get into the playoffs this year?" It‘s never quite a straightforward answer. Every season provides unexpected twists that can see dominant teams falter and basement dwellers somehow scrape into the postseason.

Based on historical data from the last decade, I‘ve compiled benchmarks across the NFL, NBA, NHL and other major sports on just what kind of record or point totals teams have needed to qualify for the playoffs. Let‘s dig in!

NFL

Over the past 5 seasons, here are the average wins and record for the division winners and wildcard teams that have qualified in the AFC and NFC:

A few takeaways:

• The top division winners average extremely solid records of 12-4 and 10-6.
• The backend division winners usually squeak by with 9-7 records. This shows that even average records can still win a weak division.
• For wildcard teams, 10-6 is practically necessary for consideration. 9-7 should also get you in mix depending on tiebreakers and strength of schedule.

Some wildcard drama from recent seasons:

• 2020: The 9-7 Bears were left out while the 8-8 Cardinals got in. Heartbreak!
• 2021: The 9-8 Raiders got in while the 9-8 Chargers were left watching games from the couch. Brutal!

So while "how many wins" is still tricky to pin down in the NFL, the benchmarks show that double digit wins, especially 10+, should safely punch your ticket. Now let‘s see what NBA and NHL teams are up against!

NBA

In the NBA, the average wins and record of the final playoff teams in each conference over the last 10 seasons are:

The East‘s 8th seeds have historically squeaked into the playoffs with completely average, .500 records. Out West it‘s a different story. Their ultra competitive conference sees 45+ win teams routinely missing out.

This gives us a helpful benchmark:

• In the East, a .500 record should safely make the playoffs as the 8th seed barring disaster
• In the West, you realistically need 45+ wins for a prayer at the 8th seed

For fans of bubble teams, the final weeks always provides endless scoreboard watching drama as teams try to claw their way in. The Suns‘ "7 Seconds or Less" era missing playoffs with 48 wins in 2008 still haunts me!

NHL

NHL playoff qualification is dictated by the standings point system:

The standings are tight year after year. A few wins here and there and the whole playoff picture changes dramatically. Case in point – the difference between the lowest division winner at 100 points and top wildcard at 96 points. Teams really need to accumulate points fast out the gate.

And lord help any team that starts slow. The Blue Jackets infamously limped out to an 0-8 start this season which instantly torpedoed their playoff hopes before Halloween even hit.

So the magic number in the NHL seems to be streaking towards 95-100 points to have a strong crack at the postseason. Easier said than done!

MLB

In baseball, there are no concrete win totals that guarantee a playoff spot since not all teams play the same interleague schedule. The 2021 Braves actually won the World Series after only 88 regular season wins. 90 wins virtually guarantees at worst a wildcard spot. But ultimately,MLB playoff qualification comes down to divisional standings like the NFL.

The two benchmarks are:

1. Win your division
2. Claim one of the Wild Card spots by having one of the best remaining records in your league

Simple enough in theory! But with 6 divisions between the American League and National League, things get very complicated quickly.

Fun fact – the Blue Jays actually held the longest MLB playoff drought from 1994-2015 despite posting winning records in that stretch. But when you share the brutal AL East division with powerhouses like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, just being "good" isn‘t good enough!

Other Leagues

• MLS: Make the top 7 from your conference. LAFC infamously missed playoffs with 58 points (3rd most all-time) in 2019!
• Champions League: Top 4 teams from Europe‘s top domestic leagues qualify. The Premier League‘s 4th place squad gets the meme-worthy "Best of the Rest" moniker.
• NFL (Europa): 6 team playoff with top 3 division winners and a wildcard in each conference.

So there we have it – a comprehensive breakdown of how many matches, wins or points your team truly needs across some of the biggest professional sports leagues. I hope this guide helps fans understand the various qualification formats and benchmarks at play. Just remember, thanks to the unpredictable nature of sports, these historical numbers merely provide estimated targets at postseason glory. Anything can happen any given season!

What bizarre playoff qualification stories or near misses stick out to you as a fan over the years? Which bubble teams are you frantically rooting for this season as they chase the record books trying to squeak their way in? Let me know in the comments!