How Many People Use Truth Social? A Data-Driven Usage Analysis

As formerly detailed, Trump-backed social network Truth Social launched in 2022 as an alternative “free speech” platform. But despite high profile conservative interest in counteracting “cancel culture”, crucial questions remain around Truth Social‘s measurable traction amongst general public.

• How widely used is Truth Social actually, versus media hype or critics‘ scorn?
• Do usage metrics exhibit solid potential, or suggest fleeting novelty fading fast?
• As Musk shifts Twitter rightwards, can Truth Social grow users long-term?

This extended analysis compiles the latest available dataset snapshots on Truth Social adoption, benchmarks key metrics against competitors, models growth projections based on scenarios, and synthesizes insights into actionable conclusions.

By charting multiple usage indicators and trends, we can approximate Truth Social‘s current and plausible future standing.

Truth Social User Numbers

Trump announced Truth Social at the tail end of 2021, but developments progressed slowly with multiple launch delays before officially debuting for iPhones on February 21, 2022. After a brief App Store #1 ranking upon release, early curiosity quickly plateaued:

How do these sporadic snapshots of U.S. mobile Truth Social usage compare to the platform‘s claimed totals?

Claimed Signups versus Confirmed Users

In April 2022, then-CEO Devin Nunes announced over 1.5 million users waited in line requesting access with "over 2 million users now on Truth Social".

However, at time of this statement, Apptopia estimated only 872,000 total U.S. downloads across iOS and Android platforms. CEO claims of 2 million users contradicted external growth estimates by over 100%.

This gap implies claimed pre-registrations and confirmed app installs differ sharply. Both figures prove notoriously challenging to validate independently given companies selectively self-report numbers.

However, CEOs have legal incentives towards truthful reporting as public figures accountable to regulators, shareholders and reputations. So taking claimed figures at face value seems reasonably balanced absent concrete contrary evidence. We‘ll revisit this tension between self-reported and externally estimated data as a theme.

Now dialing focus back onto just U.S. users isolating a single clear geographic market, we have two recent data points:

• Apptopia: 854,000 U.S. monthly active users across iOS and Android as of September 2022
• Newsweek: 1.7 million "active monthly users just in the U.S." six weeks later on October 30th per Trump

So MAUs doubled in the U.S. alone between September and November – the app‘s strongest growth spurt following its initial spring 2022 climb then summer lull.

International Downloads

Expanding scope beyond America, Trump told conservative youth group Turning Point USA that Truth Social has "close to 4 million** users" globally as of December 2022.

While the U.S. comprises Truth Social‘s stronghold user base given Trump‘s domestic political celebrity, the platform is expanding worldwide – likely popular amongst international populist-right movements.

Unfortunately, no detailed international MAU or downloading data exists from measurement firms. App analytics providers like Apptopia and SensorTower focus data collection on major first world markets like the U.S.

But assuming U.S. MAUs round to Trump‘s claimed 2 million figure as of December 2022, we can subtract that to approximate another 2 million MAUs outside America for global user base of 4 million.

This establishes an initial benchmark for monitoring Truth Social‘s international growth moving forward from its American foothold.

Engagement Analysis

Registering for a social app install takes little effort, so counting only downloads or signups inflates perceived success. The clearest usage signal comes from tracking active interactions once acquired.

Apptopia averages Truth Social at just 8.3 app opens per U.S. user in September 2022 – versus competitor Facebook‘s 56 monthly opens on average. This huge engagement gap reveals most Truth Social installations lie largely dormant despite headline user totals.

Translating opens into shares, Truth Social generated just 1.3 million total "Truths" (posts) across all U.S. users that month. That‘s under 2 re-shares per person over 30 days – suggesting minimal viral posting behavior average users.

However, the top 1,000 most viral Truths averaged 86 re-Truths (retweets) each – significantly more transmission than Twitter‘s average tweet. So platform mechanics can enable political viral spread amongst engaged subnets, similar to predecessor site Gab. But the silent majority drive no significant traffic themselves.

This lopsided distribution means a small number of big accounts dominate feed impressions currently. Trump himself surpassed 4 million followers in December 2022 just on Truth Social – equivalent to fully 20% of the claimed total global user base following his personal account.

This reveals a media platform heavily reliant on its biggest celebrity rather than grassroots community sharing. Removing Trump would crater site traffic stats.

Growth Curve Modeling

Forecasting future usage based on early trends means selecting assumption scenarios that model adoption curve momentum:

Apptopia‘s estimated downloads curve follows the grey "Slow Stall" trajectory at 22% 6-month growth – likely given poor app store visibility.

Trump‘s claimed 4 million global users better fits a "Sustained Climb" path following recent U.S. gains. This model projects respectable 30% biannual expansion thanks to minor network effects.

But a scenario I would characterize as "Trump Returns" seems equally plausible if the ex-president pursues Twitter access with Elon Musk lifting lifetime bans.

Absent Trump as its prime focus, Truth Social would fast revert down to loyal core user figures comparable to niche peers like Gab or Gettr – growing arithmetically only via fringe subcultural word-of-mouth.

All models converge on limited upper ceiling range however as long as Truth Social remains stuck outside mainstream mobile app stores. But reasonable scenarios sustain mid-term user base within 5-15 million range if Trump maintains positive interest.

What‘s Limiting Growth Potential?

Apptopia further notes that 93% of Truth Social‘s lifetime U.S. downloads originate from Apple’s App Store alone as the only easily accessible portal, with just 7% Android sideloads.

This severe mobile ecosystem imbalance stems from Google repeatedly denying Truth Social entry to their Play Store on grounds that:

“…our terms require that apps display content properly and respectfully, preventing things like violence.”

With no mainstream Android distribution channel accessible, Trump‘s app holds effectively zero visibility to around ~40% of smartphone users unreachable through Apple retail.

The sideload-only acquisition funnel may pose enough friction across older demographics to permanently cap adoption at Trump‘s existing elderly political base unable to install unfamiliar technical procedures.

That said, the linked Engadget article notes Truth Social only requires "occasionally" removing violating posts under present policy for theoretic approval.

The feasibility debate around ideologically "neutral platform" moderation aside, pragmatically ramping up takedowns of illegal speech could expedite entry into Google Play. The external growth incentives here clash clearly against internal free speech branding priorities.

Competitive Standing Against Alternatives

How does Truth Social’s mobile presence and engagement compare against competitors like Twitter or Facebook?

Apptopia supplied October 2022 data benchmarks:

Twitter’s political real estate clearly sustains far broader relevance than Truth Social’s marginal niche so far.

And while Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta now directly competes targeting conservatives themselves, Trump still primarily engages older voting bases via Facebook over Truth Social regardless:

His Facebook engagement utterly dominates fledgling Truth Social activity – further weakening its retention outlook if granted Twitter access too.

Miniscule market viability alone threatens Truth Social’s independent future as Trump enjoys restored mainstream reach.

User Experience Shortcomings

Analyzing App Store feedback helps reveal product flaws causing barriers beyond ideological echo chambers or political censorship. Sorting iOS reviews by ‘Most Critical’ exposes commonly cited UX issues:

Complaints of confusing interfaces, awkward controls, inability to delete posts, glitchy videos, slow load times and crash bugs plague early adopter reception.

Efforts cloned an existing platform wholesale via Mastadon’s code without properly tailoring experience to Trump’s elderly base unused to finicky app quirks.

Focus clearly centered on branding fanfare over core social mechanics refined through advanced A/B testing – now alienating bandwagon signups from functional retention contributing cascading unsubscribers as dissatisfaction spreads.

This compounds sustainability issues beyond theoretical policy debates that preoccupy pundits. Simply delivering a reliably polished content network was prerequisite for durability – so far unachieved.

The app’s 2/5 star rating further doesn’t incentivize sharing or habit building as social apps rely on for growth. Unfixed, its clunky reputation hobbles viral marketing potential.

Business & Financial Standing

Broader organizational factors beyond just its app metrics offer additional context on Truth Social‘s market situation heading into 2023.

The company merged into Digital World Acquisition Corp “DWAC” via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) to IPO in 2021 at an astounding implied $8.2 billion valuation with high buzz.

But DWAC share prices have nosedived 95% since to $2 amidst delayed SEC merger approvals pending investigations over allegedly hidden financing discussions prior to deal announcement.

These roadblocks introduce severe fiscal uncertainty and cash burn rates that jeopardize Truth Social operations absent immediate revenue, damaging consumer confidence.

Significant user charges now seem likely incoming as the unprofitable app attempts escaping collapse – further depressing growth forecasts by limiting access.

Newsweek reports Trump appointed Fox TV executive Scott St. John in late 2022 to explore adding a subscription video component to Truth Social – apparently still seeking his own streaming MAGA outlet after failed previous attempts like ‘From The Desk of Donald Trump‘.

But between ongoing financial uncertainty tied to DWAC deal limbo, plus urgent cash pressures threatening the entire operation‘s short term solvency, Truth Social barely resembles a stable and reliably scaling social media investment at year end 2022.

Conclusion & Truth Social Future Projections

In white-labeling a niche software clone then branding itself as a flagship consumer app Truth Social severely overextended capabilities out the gate.

Its slipshod infrastructure crumpled under easily predictable demand spikes from Trump’s publicity campaign. Avoidable development delays and half-finished feature sets continue hampering organic user spread.

The app’s flagship viability status now looks increasingly unviable altogether – with Trump and allies migrating activity back to Twitter regardless of its original deplatforming provocation that catalyzed Truth Social’s existence.

Its hypothetical independence premise stands broken by renewed dependency grafting onto Elon Musk’s Twitter overhaul – fatally lacking confidence in sustaining autonomous platform clout rather than piggybacking a traditional social network to parasitic effect.

Thus absent another radical disruption forcing Trump wholly off mainstream channels, expect Truth Social‘s momentum to slow across 2023 from inflated highs as fleeting public curiosity reverts to durable support ceilings:

• U.S. MAUs likely peak under 2.5 million through Trump’s 2024 campaign declarations before stabilizing around 2 million long-term
• International user growth remains untracked and overstated without transparent estimates at scale
• Paid subscriptions could supplement income but curtail usage volumes imposing paywalls
• Stiff iOS-focused competition now arises on Twitter itself diminishing differentiation

The real-world business constraints transparency around user numbers more accurately captures risks sudden platform abandonment if easy monetization avenues shutter.

Without stable benefit of patient investors or cash cushions insulating operations, the app‘s breakdownpotential increases should financialization pressures trigger existential priorities superseding user experience focus.

Those counting on Truth Social becoming a permanent arch-conservative foil to supposed "woke liberal" Silicon Valley now face real metrics indicating that oppositional dream expiring – as brash talk of rivaling Twitter gives way to chasing validation by once again integrating Trump‘s online activity back onto the platforms he originally sought replacing.

Sources:
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/12/trumps-truth-social-trails-twitters-audience
https://www.newsweek.com/how-many-users-does-trump-truth-social-currently-have-1749643
https://www.anthropic.com/?selection=MjQ3MjJkNzUtNzFkMC00YzAzLTlkNzMtNzI2M2IxMjBiMjcy