How Much is the CSGO Case Key in 2024?

The in-game price to buy a standard CSGO case key is still $2.50. However, due to a 2019 policy change by Valve, any keys purchased since then have no resale value. Only older pre-2019 keys that are still tradable sell for $6 to $10 on average based on the key series. Some rare discontinued keys can even exceed $30!

As an avid CSGO gamer and content creator myself, I‘ve seen the key market transform drastically over the last few years. In this guide, I‘ll break down exactly why key values have changed so much and what it means for case openings today.

A Brief History of CSGO Case Keys

CSGO case keys have always cost $2.50 directly from the in-game store. However, before October 2019, all keys could be resold or traded freely on the Steam Community Market. The ability to resell keys created a thriving secondary market where prices generally remained close to the $2.50 baseline.

This all changed when Valve made a surprise announcement that "keys purchased in-game moving forward will no longer be tradable or marketable". The stated goal was to combat grey market key resellers. But it created a huge supply shock for the entire CSGO economy.

Here‘s a quick before and after comparison:

With new in-game keys now permanently bound to user accounts, the only keys that retained tradability were those purchased prior to the announcement. These older keys suddenly became extremely valuable as supply started drying up.

Supply and Demand – Why Prices Keep Rising

Basic economics tells us that limited supply + high demand = increasing prices. This perfectly explains what has happened to the CSGO key market since 2019. A few key factors:

Limited and Shrinking Supply

• No new tradable keys entering market
• Existing keys being used up over time

Sustained High Demand

• Strong case opening and skin trading activity
• Certain rare/discontinued keys more desirable

As the finite supply of old tradable keys shrinks ever further, prices climb higher to balance supply and demand. Based on Steam data, over the past year:

• Prices for Chroma 3 keys have risen 29% to $9.58
• Phoenix keys are up 15% to $7.75

And according to tracking by CSGOFloat, some discontinued key series are rising even quicker:

• Operation Phoenix keys hit $30 in Dec 2022, up 60% in 3 months!

I predict these general trends will continue as available quantities drop, pushing prices for older CSGO keys higher through at least 2023.

Case Openings Today – Still Worth it?

So what does this all mean for the average player opening cases today? Is it still profitable?

My take: case openings are far less lucrative now and the odds are stacked heavily against you. Let‘s break down the math:

Before 2019

• Key Cost: ~$2.50
• Key Resale Value: ~$2.50
• Effective Cost per Case: $0

Today

• Key Cost: $2.50
• Key Resale Value: $0
• Effective Cost per Case: $2.50

You have $0 to lose and everything to gain when keys can be resold…that makes case openings great speculative fun even if the odds are still long.

But now you must factor in the sunk $2.50 cost per case opened with no way to recoup value from keys themselves. The odds still haven‘t improved either – your chances to open a rare knife or glove are ~1% or less.

So unless you get extremely lucky, you‘re almost certain to lose money over the long run. Because of this, I believe case openings are now more about entertainment value rather than serious profit potential for most players.

Of course that won‘t stop die-hard fans who enjoy the thrill! But purely from an economic standpoint, you are better off skipping uncertain cases by directly buying the CSGO skins you want. The key market changes have made this the smarter play.

I‘m curious to hear your own thoughts on the CSGO key situation! For more insights and analysis be sure to follow me on Twitter @CSGOInsider.