The Gold Standard: How Incredibly Rare Hondos Truly Are

I‘ll never forget the euphoria when I caught my first hundo Pokémon. After raiding Rayquaza for months with no perfect specimen, one random lunch break I tapped a wonder only to see those glorious maxed out 15s plague my screen. Even rarer than a shiny, this flawless dragon became my new prized possession.

As a completionist trainer, the hundo chase consumed me. I set out to catch every species in that top appraisal tier. Little did I know that would entail trading around the globe, plowing through mountains of candy, and stats even more daunting than the elusive 1 in 500 shinies…

Breaking Down the IV Mini-Lottery

Each Pokémon is born with a random set of invisible Individual Values (IVs) that underpin its potential in battle. These numbers range from 0 to 15 for the key stats of HP, Attack, Defense, and Stamina. An IV of 15 indicates a perfect 31 base stat points in that category at level 40.

So essentially upon spawning, every monster rolls a mini lottery in each stat. The odds chart below conveys the probability behind every possible outcome:

With equal chances behind every potential IV combination, the baseline probability of perfection sits at 0.0244%. For reference, some other Generation 1 elusive species benchmarks include:

• Unown: roughly 1 in 2,500
• Regional exclusives: 1 in 5,000
• Shiny legendaries: estimated 1 in 20

Yet despite the numerically superior odds compared to those heavyweights, the reality of securing hundos proved far more arduous…

An Elusive Chase: My Hundo Hunting Data

Over three years, I‘ve encountered 6,339 individual species in total. Among these, I registered 587 shinies along the expected 1 in 500 rate. However, only 308 specimens appraised with that perfect 15/15/15 mark – not even 1 in 20.

Expanding the tally to wonder appraisals (82%+ IVs) only bumped my total to 719. That puts my observed hundo rates at approximately 1 in 2,000. Yet even within biomes I monitored closely, vast discrepancies emerged:

I turned to trading locally and around the globe to complete my hundo Pokédex. Even still, 4 species continue to elude that perfect appraisal despite thousands of attempts: Unown, Chatot, Pachirisu, and Carnivine.

Assessing the Theories Behind Hundo Rarity

So what explains this apparent manipulation lowering hundos well below the predicted rates? Some insights into spawn mechanics and changes over time provide potential clues…

Spawn Behavior: Certain species more commonly pop above level 30 with capped IVs, while others seldom breach 20. This influences chances.

Weather/Luck: Possible (unconfirmed) spawn rate variability tied to seasons, events, or randomness akin to shiny luck.

Code Shifts: No evidence yet, but changes to IV distributions could have stealthily occurred over updates.

Species Tiers: Anecdotal hundo rates consistently below 1 in 500 for rare spawns. Common fodder species see slightly elevated perfect IV numbers.

In the end, hundos seem to defy the odds in all encounters. But that only amplifies the prestige for those able to conquer the daunting lottery and complete the flawless challenge. For shiny hunters know…no elite trainer celebration surpasses the heart pounding, hands shaking, room screaming euphoria of catching a wonder revealed instant hundo.

While the calculated probabilities point to 1 in 4,000 baseline hundo rates, observed reality indicates those perfect IVs remain vastly more elusive. The gold standard shines at roughly 1 in 2,000 odds minimum based on field research data.

And that is in the broader biome level tallies. Particular rare species present even more astronomical perfection odds, on par with lottery chances. Yet despite the numbers stacked against trainers, the triumphant few who manage to catch ‘em all in flawless form gain the ultimate bragging rights.

So I wish you best of luck fellow hunters in securing those coveted hundos. May the RNG gods smile upon your next appraisal reveal. Never give up the chase! For once you reach that pinnacle, no elite celebration compares to realizing a perfect Pokédex dream.