Just How Rare is a Shiny Kyogre in Pokémon GO?

As a hardcore Pokémon GO trainer with over 5 years tracking raid bosses, I get asked this question a lot by players who covet the pink variant of the mighty Sea Basin Pokémon. And the answer is: pretty darn rare! But exactly how rare is something I‘ve set out to quantify in this guide.

Let‘s dive into the numbers and data behind shiny Kyogre to showcase just how elusive this epic find is for the average Pokémon GO trainer.

Shiny Kyogre By the Numbers

First, let‘s establish some baseline rarity benchmarks:

As you can see, Kyogre‘s estimated 1 in 450 base shiny rate means it‘s nearly 8x rarer than your average Pokémon encounter in the wild. That alone makes it a prime target for collectors.

But more importantly, let‘s examine Kyogre‘s availability history and just how briefly trainers can actually attempt to encounter its shiny form.

Kyogre‘s Raid Appearances are Brief…And Spread Apart

Since Kyogre‘s Shiny was introduced back in early 2018, it has only been back for limited 5-14 day raid events sporadically. In total, legitimate chances to catch a shiny Kygore have occurred during the following time windows:

• 2018 Water Festival (Jan – Feb, 14 days)
• Short return in early 2019 (5 days)
• 2 week event late 2019 (14 days)
• Another 2 week event in early 2020 (14 days)
• Briefly for Hoenn Celebration 2021 (5 days)
• Most recently, early 2023 (2 weeks)

That‘s about 10 cumulative weeks of availability across 5 years! And while its shiny rate is improved to 1 in 20 during these raid events, securing that pink beast is still largely down to luck.

To quantify based on these raid time windows:

• A very active player completing their 50 weekly free raids would have had 500-700 raid attempts
• But more casual players may have finished only 30-150 total Kyogre raids since 2018
• With just a 1 in 20 shiny chance, most come away empty handed

In summary – Kyogre‘s periodic limited availability significantly dials up the shiny‘s exclusivity. Let‘s examine why…

Why Are Raid-Exclusive Shinies So Hard to Get? It‘s All About Number of Attempts

The lifeblood of securing any rarely spawning video game item comes down to chance. And the more chances you have to roll the dice, the higher probability you‘ll eventually hit the jackpot.

The same principle governs shiny hunting in Pokémon GO: the number of encounters you rack up directly correlates to your odds of success.

Most standard Pokémon offer daily spawn opportunities or methods like research tasks to grind encounters. Combined with community days or events like Go Fest dialing up the volume 100x normal rates, achieving that 1 in 450 (or better) benchmark becomes feasible over time.

But legendary Raid Bosses just don‘t offer nearly the same number of tries:

• Rotating availability every few months
• Only able complete 5 free raids daily
• Buying extra raid passes still caps daily attempts around 10-15
• Most players finish 30-150 lifetime Kyogre raids
  • Averages 1-3 shiny opportunities per year
• Whereas standard shinies offer 5+ daily year-round

This puts the short window nature of raids into sharp relief: far fewer Kyogre appearance cycles also equals far fewer chances at that coveted color variant.

After breaking down the numbers, it‘s clear why I still don‘t have a pink whale in my roster after several strong attempts!

Now to really drive home how this factors into Kyogre‘s long-term rarity outlook…

Predicting the Future: Will Shiny Kyogre Get Easier to Obtain Over Time?

Like any game developer, Niantic uses the careful balance of scarcity vs. opportunity to keep trainers motivated and revenues strong.

Too available, and shiny legendaries would lose their coveted status. But too rare for too long risks frustrating fans who‘ve patiently waited years for their favorite to appear again.

So while Kyogre will inevitably cycle back around in 2024, don‘t expect its stellar hide to get easier to obtain anytime soon. If anything, I‘d brace for even more fleeting appearance windows with 1 year gaps or more going forward.

After all, drawing out that long hunt over many years is what keeps us collectors rabidly returning – and spending on raid passes – every time our Hoenn mascot emerges for a too-short encore!

But for those determined to get their whale, having a stockpile of coins when Kyogre reappears is key. Raid remotely in big cities to maximize odds as well. And be prepared for a long road before you‘ll hear the shiny sound cue erupt from that big beast!

At the end of the day, Kyogre‘s incredible power, awesome design, and dazzling pink shiny incarnation will ensure players like me stay glued to our screens until we can call it our own!

In summary:

Shiny Kyogre Rarity Verdict

• Current Shiny Odds: Estimated 1 in 450 base rate boosted to 1 in 20 for raid events
• Periodic Availability: Only via limited 5-14 day raid events every 1+ years
• Shiny Catch Attempts: Most players manage 30-150 lifetime Kyogre raids
• Future Forecast: Will remain incredibly rare with gaps between availability stretching further

So while the odds are never 0, catching a shiny Kyogre requires a lot of patience, luck, and dedication to limited-time raid events.

But that‘s the beauty of the long shiny hunt – with each failure Kyogre eludes us, its shining moment inches closer even if that journey lasts years or more!

I hope this guide gives fellow fans and collectors a data-driven glimpse into why we‘re so obsessed with when that pink beast will next emerge. And better yet, the thrill we‘ll have when our Pokéballs finally snap shut on its scintillating scales at long last!

Let me know in the comments if you‘ve been more successful finding your shiny Kyogre – I could use some extra shiny luck!