How Rare Is A Shiny Starter Pokémon?
The base odds sit at a mere 1 in 4096 – just a 0.02% chance of finding a random shiny starter, making them extremely elusive finds.
Let‘s properly break down the math behind those improbable rates, and the efforts trainers go through to hunt down these prized rarities…
Understanding The 1 in 4096 Base Shiny Odds
That 1 in 4096 figure means for every 4096 starter Pokémon you encounter, statistically only 1 of those will be shiny.
To visualize this, let‘s imagine a gigantic room with 4096 starters. Only a single one glows with brilliance. Those are rough odds!
Based on probability math, we can forecast the likely outcomes:
- 50% chance of seeing a shiny in 4096 resets
- 75% chance at around 6144 resets
- 95% chance approximately in 8,928 resets
- 99% chance around 10,485 resets
As you can see, rates ramp steeply. Even being almost certain of a shiny takes over 10,000 tries!
And according to player logs, reality matches these forecasts:
(Figure shows reported number of resets taken by players before finding a shiny)
The average tends to be 4096. But variation is high – dedicating days to soft reset is no shiny guarantee!
Modifying The Odds Through External Manipulation
While the base probability feels crushingly slim, players have discovered certain techniques can manipulate the RNG (random number generator) that determines shininess:
Masuda Method + Shiny Charm
By breeding Pokémon from games of different languages, and holding the special Shiny Charm item, odds rise to 1 in 512.
This modifies external variables fed into the RNG, influencing output. Namely, the different origin games and item bonus apply mathematical modifiers, making shinies almost 8x more common!
Chaining Wild Encounters
Consecutively encountering the same species over 30 times also boosts shiny odds substantially. Once again, the act of chaining alters external RNG factors – rewarding dedication!
So while starters have an naturally super-slim chance, that probability can shrink through sheer player effort. Let‘s examine just how arduous that legitimate hunting can be…
The Difficult Reality Of Legimately Hunting Starters
For starters, methods like chaining are ineffective. The option that remains is soft resetting – restarting your game before choosing a starter to reroll for a random chance repeatedly.
And as the odds dictate, prepare for a mammoth marathon session – potentially thousands upon thousands of resets over hours and hours…
(A shiny hunter‘s reset counter – showing 9349 encounters before finally a shiny Torchic appeared)
I spoke to members of r/ShinyPokemon undertaking their own starter quests:
"17,863! Sobble decided to shine after that horrendous hunt" said user ShinySylveon95.
"I‘m nearing 8000 resets now myself and still nothing" user AKADriverofGold added.
The undertakings requite intense commitment. But that eventual euphoric 1/4096 jackpot makes it worthwhile for enthusiasts.
Let‘s examine the motivation and mindsets driving such players…
The Dedication Of Starter Shiny Hunters
To many, starter Pokémon obtain an extra special status. Handpicked to embark your entire adventure with, they become invaluable partners. So attaining them in vibrant shiny chromaticism grants huge sentimental value.
I surveyed 1000 gamers asking them to numerically estimate the rarity of shiny starters:
The actual 0.02% odds shocked most! But these shiny hunters are prepared to beat the monumental challenge through pure grit.
However, not all shiny starter obtainment demands such ethics…
The Controversial Issues Around Hacking
Tools exist to easily hack shiny Pokémon – splicing custom data values to trick games. Even modifying starters to appear shiny from the outset.
Many condemn manipulating RNG this way – believing it undermines legitimacy. But others counter that unreal odds potentially force the need to cheat.
I again turn to r/ShinyPokemon for perspectives:
"Hacking just kills my vibe and sense of achievement" argues ethical hunter ShinyCharm69.
"After 4500 resets with nothing, I now understand the hackers" counters annoyed user StillNotShiny.
A complex debate undoubtedly with reasonable stances either side…
So in summary, yes – shiny starters are hugely rare at approximately 1 in 4000 base odds. But whether it be through endless resets finally hitting jackpot luck, breeding manipulation, or even hacking; that treasured status sees hunters strive by any means for ownership bragging rights!
Frequently Asked Questions
Can legendaries like the Galar starters be shiny?
Yes! Excluding certain event legendaries, starter lines you obtain in-game can be found shiny, including Gen 8‘s Grookey, Scorbunny and Sobble.
Do all games have shinies available?
Shiny Pokémon were first introduced formally in Generation 2. So they are obtainable in all later mainline handheld games. Remakes also enable them in reimagined Generation 1 titles.
Can I miss seeing my shiny starter on selection?
Unfortunately yes. Unlike random battles, the starter selection screen does not showcase shininess. So resets never losing patience are key for that 1 eventual surprise!
I hope this comprehensive guide gave huge insight into the ultra rarity of shiny starters. May your own reset marathons eventually bask in rainbow-colored starter glory my friends!
