How rare is shiny Mega Gengar?

Let me start out by clearly stating it: shiny Mega Gengar is incredibly rare, sitting at roughly a 1 in 60,000 chance of encounter in Pokemon GO at the baseline rate. But what does a 1 in 60,000 actually mean? And why exactly is this particular Pokemon so difficult to obtain in its shiny form? Read on as I break down and analyze all the factors around catching this coveted monster.

Analyzing The Base Rates

First, let‘s examine the base catch rates and build upward from there:

• Standard Gengar Catch Rate: 20%
• Shiny Gengar Catch Rate: ~1 in 500 (0.2%)
• Mega Gengar only available in select Mega Raids

So right off the bat, grabbing a random shiny Gengar is fairly uncommon, and turns exceptionally rare when you extrapolate the Mega Raiding requirements.

Catch Rate Statistics and Analysis

Research group The Silph Road has aggregated data from over 167,000 Gengar encounters to analyze rates over time. Their findings:

As you can see, the base shiny rate holds remarkably consistent over time, hovering right around the expected 1 in 500 mark.

So how does this translate into shiny Mega Gengar? Let‘s dig deeper…

Breaking Down The Exponential Rarity

Catching any shiny Pokemon is an exciting moment. But nabbing a shiny AND the temporary Mega Evolution pushes the odds to astronomical levels. Let‘s examine why:

#1: Requiring The Base Form First

Unlike standard raids which offer a randomly generated monster, players must first catch a regular Gengar before mega evolving it. Per the base 1 in 500 shiny rate, this means catching and checking hundreds before a single shiny.

#2: Only In Special Mega Raids

The Silph researchers have aggregated data over 4,712 Mega Gengar raids since the Pokemon‘s Mega debut in 2020. However, these raids only appear during select events making encounters highly limited.

#3: 1-Chance Catch Opportunity

After successfully raiding, you only get one Premier Ball to attempt catching the Pokemon. One throw…one chance for a tiny possibility at a shiny mega.

Estimated Total Shiny Mega Rate: 1 in 60,000!

Accounting for all above factors, researchers estimate the aggregated probability for grabbing a shiny Mega Gengar at roughly 1 in 60,000!

So in summary – yep, incredibly rare! Let‘s compare to some other infamously hard-to-get shiny legendaries:

As the table shows, Mega Gengar‘s shiny form dwarfs even the toughest legendary giants!

Why So Rare?

Beyond the statistical improbability, availability is the biggest contributor to this Pokémon‘s mega rarity:

• Requires owning base-form Gengar first
• Only appears in occasional Mega Raid events
• 1 Premier Ball catch chance

Without frequent Mega Raid opportunities, the chances are extremely scarce. Even when available, grabbing that shiny transformation on one ball is astonishingly unlikely!

Researcher Experience Hunting

Personally, I‘ve fought dozens of Mega Gengar raids over 3 years without a single shiny encounter. Here are my stats:

• 52 Total Mega Gengar Raids
• 0 Shiny Sightings
• 412 Regular Gengars Caught
• 3 Random Shiny Gengars

And I don‘t even have a "perfect" for PvP or Master League! One day I hope to be blessed by Niantic RNG with a shiny mega…one day…

Future Availability Speculation

The good news is that Mega Gengar will likely get more recurring raid rotations. However, its mega evolution remains temporary and requires regular raiding to stay active.

I predict October 2023 Halloween events will reactivate another wave of Mega Gengar. Perhaps the shiny rates may even see a boost next year! We can only hope right?

In summary – best bet is to aggressively raid every Mega Gengar event rotation to accumulate candy and hope for that fateful 1 in 60,000 shiny discovery!

Let me know in the comments your experiences hunting this extremely elusive shiny Mega Pokémon! Never give up and keep hunting trainers!