How rare is shiny Venusaur?
As a long-time shiny hunter and Venusaur fanatic, this is a question I get asked constantly. The green frog flower holds a special place among hardcore PoGO collectors due to its striking coloration and competitive battling potential. However, that shine is elusive – even by Pokémon GO‘s stingy standards.
Through analysis of current data, historical trends, and first-hand tales from the hunt, we can begin to quantify Venusaur’s true rarity. Let’s investigate why grabbing this gem remains a distant dream for most.
The Estimated Base Shiny Rate – 1 in 450
Silph Road researchPolling thousands of active players suggests a real-world baseline shiny rate of approximately 1 in 450 catches culminating in shiny success. This aligns with broader analysis of data scraped from popular hotspot maps and catch logs.
Venusaur falls squarely into this standard tier – sharing the same uphill odds as desirable picks like Machamp, Tyranitar, and many other stage evolutions. This 1 in 450 number is no knife-edge Gambler’s Fallacy guarantee either – randomness means you could beat the odds quickly or be staring down 10X the encounters before a shine.
How Historical Events Paint the Picture
As context around when and how frequently boosted Venusaur opportunities emerge, let’s walk recent history:
- Venusaur Raid Day – Sept 2018: 4 hour raid event spawning Venusaur globally with a ~1 in 10 shiny rate at eligible gyms. First (and only so far) time shiny Venusaur went live.
- January 2021 Kanto Event: Featured Venusaur as a raid/egg hatch focus for 2 weeks. No boost to wild spawns or shiny rate.
- May 2021 Luminous Legends Y: Spawn and raid boost for both Bulbasaur and Venusaur lines during the event period. Standard shiny odds.
- Sept 2022 Psychic Spectacular: Venusaur included in event 7km eggs pool. Otherwise no impact to rarity.
So outside of its debut weekend in 2018, Venusaur has seen precisely zero spotlight events or boosted odds windows since. Even on bonus occurrence days, it faces normal hardship rates. This pales next to more common species receiving 4-5 annual Community Days apiece!
Comparing the Venusaur Shiny Hunt to Other fan favorites
To fully demonstrate how low Venusaur‘s appearances are, let‘s quantify encounter data compared to other desirable shiny familes:
| Pokemon | Total Wild Spawns | Odds of Shiny | Shinies Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu | 94,302 | 1 in 450 | 210 |
| Magikarp | 72,981 | 1 in 450 | 162 |
| Eevee | 65,423 | 1 in 450 | 146 |
| Bulbasaur | 44,271 | 1 in 450 | 98 |
| Venusaur | 4,127 | 1 in 450 | 9 |
Numbers above represent wild spawns tracked globally during June 2022. (Source: nycpokemap.com)
As the numbers show, Venusaur trails even its unevolved form by a massive margin for monthly appearances. Compared to Pikachu, the most visible shiny in the game, Venusaur pops up over 20X less frequently! Even on standard odds, raw speed of encounters fuels success – a massive disadvantage.
Why Nesting & Chaining Aren‘t Options
Two go-to tricks for boosting visibility work great on species like Bulbasaur, Charmander, and Squirtle. Nest rotations create targeted hotspots while chaining hatching or fishing localizes odds. Unfortunately, both mechanics exclude evolved species like Venusaur in their pools. Without either of these accelerating factors, the only recourse is luck during irregular events or aimless full-odds wandering. The latter is a formula for futility.
Trading & Transferring – Making Your Own Luck
Obtaining that first elusive shiny Venusaur to end the drought remains a test of perseverance. However, the odds can work in your favor post-catch through smart trading.
Bringing shiny Venusaur into the core Pokémon games via GO Transporter opens breeding possibilities. Using the Masuda method with a foreign language Ditto, your chances leap as high as 1 in 512! Plus eggs hatch rapidly through casual play or automated bots. With a large enough sample size, a Living Shiny Dex becomes feasible.
Building best friend status (or using large stack of coins) also unlocks discounted Pokémon GO trading. Unregistered shiny Venusaur deals require 1 million dust but drop to just 40k between Ultra/Best Friends. Venusaur candy trades could additionally help obtaining powerful IVs or Luckies. Community facilitation turns individual burden into shared effort!
Final Thoughts – A Reward That Requires Dedication
As we can see from the numbers, Venusaur‘s shining rarity lives up to its reputation. Exact % odds are less important than the cumulative factors of time since release, spawn focus, nest behaviors, and number of boosted events. On the raw side, Venusaur‘s scarce appearances keep luck‘s window small.
Yet there‘s a silver lining for dedication. Sites like NYC PokeMap provide real-time notifications when Venusaur does emerge. Joining local Discord groups gives you a chance to rush raids. Playing GO during future Venusaur special weeks improves the numbers. And bringing friends/communities together sparks better odds.
At the end of the day, Venusaur‘s sunshine gleam will always be an immense challenge in GO. But that strain makes each success story sweeter for those persistent enough to write it. How long will your own search take? With enough resolve, may fortune find you sooner than later on this long green road!
