Is Judy the Rarest Villager in Animal Crossing: New Horizons?

The unequivocal answer is yes – Judy is hands-down one of the absolute rarest and most sought-after villagers in all of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. As an brand new villager introduced in New Horizons lacking an amiibo card, Judy‘s rarity is compounded even further by her extremely low random move-in rate and highly admired stylish design.

How Rare is Judy Compared to All Other Villagers?

Thanks to dedicated data miners, we have insight into the actual background proc rates that determine which villagers can move onto your island:

As you can see, Judy finds herself in the rarest possible group alongside fellow super-popular/super-rare villager Raymond – but with 12 times lower odds of ever randomly appearing on your island compared even to Raymond!

To put it another way, for every one player who lucks into having Judy naturally move in, there are likely over 100 Raymond owners and nearly 500 Marshal owners who managed to score those tier 1 dreamies. That‘s how exceptionally rare it is to get Judy organically through the game‘s RNG move-in selector.

Why Judy is So Coveted by Players

We‘ve established Judy‘s absolute rarity amongst all potential villagers. But high demand from the player community further compounds her popularity due to these additional factors:

Personality & Design – Judy‘s "snooty" personality may take some befriending at first, but her colorful fashionista look endears her to millions of stylish players. As the trendiest blue bear cub on any island with her sparkly, rainbow-chroma design, Judy slays it as a streetwear icon.

No Amiibo Support – Nintendo has yet to reissue an Judy amiibo card since her New Horizons debut, despite being one of the clear fan-favorites that emerged from that release. This protects her rarity, but frustrates many who can‘t readily invite her by card.

Prestige & Status – Much like Raymond and Marshal before her, having Judy reside on your island carries immense clout and prestige today. As the rarest new villager in NH lacking her own card, securing Judy organically grants serious bragging rights.

Real-World Value – On the Nookazon marketplace, Judy regularly commands 500-1000+ Nook Mile Tickets in trades due to supply/demand imbalance. At 300,000 Bells equivalent value per NMT based on farming rates, that places her fair market value between $4-8+ million Bells!

Simply put, Judy checks all the boxes – from extreme rarity, adorable style, and suave personality to sheer prestige of ownership – that make her an absolute unicorn villager that every player secretly hopes to see one day wander onto their home island.

So How Many Active Islands Might Judy Actually Reside On?

While concrete data is hard to verify, we can make some safe assumptions here if we consider the following:

• Animal Crossing: New Horizons has sold over 38,000,000 copies since launch
• Of those, let‘s assume up to 50% (19 million) reflect active Islands today
• Judy‘s move-in rate sits at roughly 1/480 probability

Crunching those numbers (19,000,000 divided by 480), we can estimate that Judy likely only naturally exists on approximately 40,000 islands worldwide at most.

Compare that to Raymond at 1/40 rarity, of whom there are likely over 475,000 islands with today, dwarfing Judy‘s numbers by more than 10 times over!

Now imagine the spill-over demand from the millions of unlucky islands who don‘t have her, all vying should she ever appear in Residential Services or their campsite. No wonder she‘s such hot property!

Evaluating Other Top-Tier Dreamies Like Judy

To give broader context around villager demand and rarity, let‘s compare Judy to two other perpetual fan-favorites often discussed in the same breath as her:

While personal preferences always come into play, I‘ve evaluated these villagers on a 5 star / 5 NMT maximum rating scale across attributes like personality, origin, real $ value, trading desirability, and long-run prestige. What stands out? Judy still reigns supreme – matching even Raymond on prestige/clout while exceeding essentially all current dreamies on organic rarity alone.

At the end of the day, while the technical move-in rates speak for themselves, it‘s the ensuing market demand from millions of enamored players that continue to drive Judy‘s mythical status as that dream villager who can transform any island overnight from mundane to fabulous. So if Judy comes a-knockin‘ – make sure to roll out that literal red carpet for her! She‘s earned her place today as Animal Crossing royalty.