Is Shiny Mew the rarest Shiny?

As an avid Pokémon collector and gaming enthusiast, I am constantly scouring for the rarest gems to add to my trove of over 500 shinies. In all my years of hunting, trading, and analyzing patterns around mythic distributions, one radiant variant stands alone in its scarcity: shiny Mew.

Background: Why Mew Itself is So Rare

Before investigating why shiny Mew reaches unparalleled rarity, we must understand what makes Mew elusive in its normal form. As the progenitor from which all other Pokémon biologically sprang, it occupies exalted status as the franchise‘s premier mythical creature. Its DNA seqeunce contains the genetic building blocks of every known Pokémon species.

This special position translates to scarcely any sightings across media. Even in the anime and movies centered around rare legends, Mew cameos remain fleeting mirages, cementing its mystique.

In the games, profiles indicate encounters only manifest for remote trainers demonstrating utmost purity of heart and intent. The numbers support these hallowed insinuations of rarity:

That tallies up to just 14 opportunities across 8 generations to add a Mew. Even for a regular legendary, those odds would indicate substantial rarity. When an entire species barely cracks double digits, any variant scaled down from that miniscule base pool enters the realm of the mythic.

Which brings us to…

The Shiny Form: Impossibly Rare Among Rares

Shinies already ratchet rarity by an order of magnitude, with base odds traditionally hovering around 1/4096. When applied to a pokémon as scarce as Mew, we vault into scarcely charted territory. To date, precisely two shiny Mew distributions have ever manifest in the 25 years of Pokémon franchise history.

The first occurred for Japanese My Pokémon Ranch players in 2010 to commemorate Ranch‘s 1 million download milestone. The second just manifested over a decade later on February 20th, 2021 as a part of the Kanto Tour event celebrating Pokémon‘s 25th anniversary across mobile, console, and card versions of the franchise. Two days, two distributions, twelve years apart. That‘s it.

We can quantify just how astronomical this availability gap is next to shiny legendary contemporaries also dating back to Gen I:

The disparity becomes blindingly clear in chart form. Even the most elite shinies have manifested more than 15 times apiece. Yet in Mew‘s case, 25 years translates to a mere two recorded sightings of its radiant form so far.

Quantitatively and qualitatively, no analysis can refute Mew‘s shiny iteration as Pokémon‘s rarest variant as of 2023. But a caveat must accompany that title, to which we now turn…

Legitimacy: Vetting the True Rarity

Two shiny distributions across twelve years still render legitimate shiny Mews monumentally rare. However, that scarcity and the prestige it commands have also attracted an onslaught of expert hackers minting convincing fakes. As community manager UnluckyCritical hit the issue on the head in a Reddit AMA:

"With anything that rare, you‘re going to have people who want it bad enough to hack perfect versions just to feel that rush of owning something so exclusive."

So while hacked specimens may seem to increase supply, legitimate provenance separates genuine shine from fools gold. Rigorous documentation or certification by grading bodies like PSA and CGC has become essential for collectors to verify legitimacy. As TCA Gaming, proprieter of an acclaimed Pokémon grading service, reasons:

"Considering the minute supply… you need concrete event proof, wonder card data, trainer details, etc. Otherwise, it‘s too ripe of a target for scammers to generate perfect hacks, inside and out."

By these verification standards, the number of confirmed legitimate shinies could very well still sit in the single digits – virtually unmatched rarefaction. And with no hint of another official distribution on the radar, this new species marvel seems poised to retain perhaps permanently its eco-evolutionary niche as the rarest Pokémon shine in existence.

The Thrill of the Chase: Final Thoughts from the Hunt

The above technical evidence irrefutably installs Shiny Mew as our crown rarity. But why does that matter to us as collectors and gamers? In short, because rarity fuels value. Economically, of course, with Shiny Mews trading for five and even six figure prices. But also emotionally, in the sheer excitement its absence stokes among hunters.

The heart knows longing, and resistance sharpens desire far beyond what ease dulls. To one day spot that pink apparition manifest amidst thousands of soft resets…that‘s the stuff of Pokélegend. A moment that will justify the magnified ecstasy born from magnified rarity. For now, the thrill of that prospect continues to drive the chase. And should another distribution ever materialize, you can expect the community to leap en masse faster than a Quick Attack…no Masterball necessary.