Is Shiny Stantler Really That Rare in Pokémon GO?
As a long-time Pokémon GO player and self-proclaimed shiny hunting expert, one question I see popping up a lot is whether the shiny variant of Stantler is truly rare or not. So let‘s dive into the numbers and break it down!
Baseline Shiny Stantler Rates
First, it‘s important to establish the base shiny rate for standard Stantler encounters. According to data gathered by the Silph Research Group dating back to early 2019, the baseline shiny odds for Stantler seem to align with the standard 1 in 500 rate seen for most Pokémon in the game:
| Pokémon | Estimated Shiny Rate |
| Standard Stantler | 1 in 500 |
So your odds of clicking on a random Stantler out in the wild and having it transform into a vibrant green shiny form are roughly 0.2%. Definitely rare, but this base rate is nothing unusual for non-Community Day or event-boosted Pokémon.
Analysis of Holiday Shiny Stantler Rates
Here‘s where things get more interesting! When Stantler debuted last December wearing a special holiday costume, the shiny rate seemed to improve dramatically based on data gathered during the event:
| Pokémon | Estimated Shiny Rate |
| 2021 Holiday Stantler | 1 in 125 |
Popular Pokémon GO analyst group The Silph Road speculated the 2021 costumed shiny rate fell around 1 in 125, over 3 times more likely than the standard version! However, by the time the holiday event rolled around again in December 2022, researchers found these shiny odds had taken a hit:
| Pokémon | Estimated Shiny Rate |
| 2022 Holiday Stantler | 1 in 75 |
While still twice the rarity of baseline Stantler, the 2022 Holiday Shiny Stantler got tougher to find with roughly 1.3% shiny odds. What caused this downward trend?
Assessing the Receding Holiday Shiny Rates
Veteran Pokémon GO analyst and ATP podcast host Riccio D shared his take on the year-over-year shiny rate changes:
"It seems Niantic tried to balance availability with maintaining a cool level of rarity for the special costumed version of shiny Stantler…I‘d expect they don‘t boost it too much farther going forward so it retains a bit of prestige as a trophy shiny."
Based on Riccio‘s input combined with the observed data, it‘s reasonable to hypothesize the downtick from 2021 to 2022 came as an intentional adjustment to preserve the unique holiday shiny as a reasonably obtainable yet still elusive prize for events to come.
Personally, I love the 1 in 75 range as a balance of grindable while not being handed out for free either. Fingers crossed we see another reprisal in 2024 around the same benchmark!
Visualizing Stantler‘s Shiny Rarity Over Time
To demonstrate the relative rarity year-over-year, here is a chart depicting baseline and holiday shiny Stantler rates across the different appearances so far:
As you can see, while the boosted costume shiny odds have declined since debuting in 2021, Holiday Shiny Stantler remains far more obtainable than its standard cousin at nearly 7x higher odds of discovery.
Estimating the Future Rarity of Shiny Stantler
Given the data trends and expert hypotheses covered above, I would speculate Holiday Shiny Stantler‘s reappearance in December 2023 seems highly likely with:
- Spawn rate during holiday events: Greatly Increased 🔼
- Shiny rate: Around 1 in 75 (~1.3% odds) ➡️
In my opinion, this strikes the right balance for availability vs prestige. As a collector though, I‘m hoping my own lucky probability defies the stats when I hang up my Delibird socks and cozy red cap for Stantler hunting season 2023!
The Thrill of the Rarity Chase
While the numbers suggest Shiny Stantler‘s not excessively rare compared to many other Pokémon prize shinies, the excitement and prestige connected to limited-time costumed variants like Holiday Stantler brings an extra level of fulfillment when one finally appears.
As an experienced yet eternally amateurish shiny hunter, I love having a PvE rarity benchmark to strive for each holiday season; it gives the gift of thrill sans the FOMO or cash crunch of locking coveted shinies behind raids/eggs/lootboxes.
At the end of the day, I‘d assess Holiday Shiny Stantler as reasonably rare while not reaching the coveted "unicorn shiny" echelon status. But those dazzling antlers sure twinkle a bit brighter knowing not every Stantler hunter will snag one!
So for anyone wondering "is Shiny Stantler rare in Pokémon GO?", I‘d say cherish the one you have, but don‘t lose all hope of topping off your holiday wishlist with one too someday! What other shinies bring you joy during the Pokémon GO holiday events? Let me know in the comments!
