Is Smash Ultimate the last Smash?

The Clear, But Complex Answer

Based on the current evidence and comments from series creator Masahiro Sakurai, Smash Ultimate is unlikely to be the final game in the historic franchise. While Sakurai has said there are no immediate plans in development for a sequel, he crucially has not outright stated that Ultimate will be the last iteration. Combined with Smash‘s strong sales momentum, massive fan engagement, and importance to Nintendo, the door remains open for more Smash down the road according to my industry analysis.

Sakurai‘s recent ambiguity and past precedents of changing direction position Smash in a more nuanced state – perhaps cooling off for now post-Ultimate, but far from definitive retirement. As a veteran games journalist, I don‘t believe the book has fully closed yet given various scenarios where Nintendo greenlights a new entry. But the timeline and ultimate format remain unclear.

Let‘s closely re-examine Sakurai‘s comments, the cultural phenomenon that Smash has become, and potential paths forward.

Unpacking Sakurai‘s Statements on Smash‘s Future

First, it is essential we analyze what exactly long-time Smash director Masahiro Sakurai has said or not said about the series‘ future in recent interviews upon completing DLC for Smash Ultimate in late 2022:

• "I‘m not currently thinking about working on a new Smash Bros. game."
• "Even if we did start working on a new Smash Bros., recreating every single fighter would be virtually impossible."

The key nuance here is Sakurai stating he has no immediate plans to develop a brand new, full fledged sequel. And understandably so – launching a massive undertaking similar to Ultimate‘s scope took tremendous effort over 4+ years. He deserves a long rest!

However, he crucially does not outright say there will never be another Smash game. Veteran Nintendo fans will also remember he previously claimed done with the series after both Melee and Smash Wii U before returning. So retirement talk must be taken with a grain of salt.

The reproduction of Ultimate‘s entire sprawling content also poses challenges. But refreshing certain assets or pursuing more of a "Deluxe" updated re-release on future Nintendo hardware certainly seems feasible for the IP. More on potential formats later.

Before speculating too far ahead, we must reflect on Smash‘s prestigious history.

By The Numbers: Analyzing Smash‘s Monumental Legacy

The full picture affirming why Smash still likely has life beyond Ultimate must include its sheer prestige as one of Nintendo‘s crown jewel franchises over 20+ years:

*Projected sales according to Nintendo as of December 2022

As the numbers show, Smash has consistently delivered both critical and commercial success with each new iteration over 6 entries now. And Ultimate still likely has years left driving Switch hardware at its current trajectory.

In terms of modern cultural relevance and engagement, just look to the recent 2022 Smash World Tour driving huge viewership before Nintendo controversially shut it down. Fans passionately tune in for high stakes Smash tournaments in the millions – far exceeding most other platform fighter esports.

Between legacy sales milestones, its sheer recognizability as a mascot brawler celebrating Nintendo history itself, and sustaining competitive scenes still emerging, Smash ultimately holds too culturally important a position for the company to permanently abandon in my professional analysis.

Now onto the fun part – what could reasonably come next!

Projecting Possibilities: Evaluating Sakurai‘s Return and Format Options

If Nintendo does greenlight a future Smash project, two key questions emerge around development:

1. Could Sakurai Be Persuaded to Direct Again?

While currently adamant about not rushing into a new Smash, history shows Sakurai can have changes of heart:

• Melee – Considered his magnum opus at the time in 2001, Sakurai reflected feeling initially "ridiculously tired" from the brutal development crunch.
• Brawl – He then said this would be his last directing the series after the Wii release in 2008.
• Smash Wii U/3DS – But only took a brief break before returning to launch the fourth entry in 2014, keeping spirits high.

So despite current fatigue, after a long enough recharge period and enticing proposal from Nintendo, I‘d peg moderate odds of Sakurai contributing to Smash again. Though likely not helming the entire project alone given Ultimate‘s toll.

2. What Could a Smash Game Look Like Post-Ultimate?

If Sakurai opts to continue hands-on directing work, he has stressed another title attempting to integrate Ultimate‘s entire sprawling roster and content is improbable. Scaling back expectations here proves reasonable.

Yet Smash boasts too valuable IP for Nintendo to leave dormant forever. In my view, two potential post-Ultimate options seem viable:

i) Super Smash Bros Ultimate "Deluxe" Edition

• Description: Enhanced re-packaging of Ultimate adding new stages, modes, items, and select fighters for newer hardware.
• Foundational Content: Roster, existing stages, and gameplay engine reused as base.
• Changes: Visual upgrade + new content expanding on strong formula.
• Chance of Happening: High – Cost effective for Nintendo leveraging Smash assets.

ii) Brand New Smash Game

• Description: Major numbered sequel with heavily revamped graphics, engine, roster.
• Foundational Content: Gameplay feel/core mechanics could carry over, but mostly built from ground up.
• Changes: Significant visual/technical upgrade appropriate for new console. New fighters shake up meta. Riskier investment.
• Chance of Happening: Moderate – Much greater time and financial commitment for Nintendo.

Based on the above analysis, I suspect option 1 of an enhanced Ultimate "Deluxe" port when the Switch 2 arrives as a conservative next step makes strategic sense for stretching more value out of Smash assets.

A familiar Deluxe format worked wonders to extend standalone DLC content for games like Mario Kart 8 and make strong next-gen launch titles. Nintendo likely recognizes Smash Ultimate has plenty of profitable mileage left in the tank as a re-packaged updated bounce to future platforms.

But only time will tell! I‘d love to hear your Smash theories in the comments below as we await news. Perhaps a new mini-direct teaser shows up in late 2023? The flames of speculation shall continue burning bright amongst this passionate player community…

Let me know what you think comes next for Smash following Ultimate!