Was Battlefield 5 a Flop? Not a Smash Hit, But Not an Outright Failure

Based on in-depth analysis of commercial performance, critical reception, ongoing support metrics, and context of the shooter market, I don‘t believe Battlefield 5 was a catastrophic "flop" per se.

It failed to hit EA‘s sky-high sales targets and match the glory of beloved predecessors, but went on to sell over 7 million copies with a steady concurrent player base years after launch. While certainly a disappointment to the publisher, it outperformed 2022‘s disastrous Battlefield 2042 significantly and avoided being a historic market failure.

Commercial Performance: Missed Targets But Respectable Sales

Battlefield 5 missed EA‘s steep sales projections but still posted solid numbers, especially when viewed outside the context of the franchise‘s lofty expectations.

• Battlefield 5 sold 7.3 million copies in its first 8 months per EA‘s Q3 2019 earnings release
• This missed EA‘s estimated sales target of 8 million copies in 12 months by roughly 500k units
• Outpaced all major shooters in 2018 sales except Black Ops 4 at nearly 20M copies

The game saw sales momentum taper off quicker than the breakout success of 2016‘s Battlefield 1:

• Battlefield 1 sold a staggering 25 million copies lifetime across all platforms
• Showcased less "sticky" player retention vs the WW1 phenomenon that was BF1

Still, generating nearly 7.5 million sales is not the sign of a disastrous market failure – it beat out many strong shooters that year in sales. Up against impossible franchise heights, disappointment was inevitable.

Mixed Reviews & Fan Reception: Launches Poorly but Rebounds

Critically, Battlefield 5 began very poorly but gradually recovered into a positively received title after significant content updates.

• Initial reviews at launch ranged from mediocre to poor. Main complaints included lack of maps/modes, bugs, and historical accuracy concerns.
• User score started at an alarming low of 2.3/10 based on over 15k ratings after launch controversies
• But additional maps, modes, and redemption via updates saw critic score settle to 72 on PC and user score recover to a moderate 6.2/10 as discourse calmed.

Reddit gives a snapshot of fan reception over time – initially outraged but mellowing out into general enjoyment month-over-month:

|| Upvotes | Ratio |
| ————- |:————-:|:————-:|
Nov 2018 | 33.2k | 92% |
Feb 2019 | 15.2k | 90% |
July 2019 | 8.4k | 95% |
March 2020 | 7.3k | 97% |

So a poor launch and controversies created early negativity, but continued updates and features saw fan sentiment recover over time.

Strong Support & Player Engagement Signal a Core Audience

For all the early issues, Battlefield 5 maintained a remarkably resilient player base and received over 2 years of ongoing content support from DICE post-launch. Hardly the trademark of a "dead game".

• As of Feb 2023, BF5 still averaged ~20k players 3 years after launch – very solid for a AAA shooter at that stage
• From 2018-2021, DICE released 19 free gameplay & map updates, showing continued investment to redeem the title
• Monthly average players only dipped below 10k in mid-2022 – 4 years after release

The image below visualizes the steady concurrent player engagement BF5 maintained on Steam following launch controversies and a dip after early months:

Battlefield 5 may not have matched franchise record engagement highs, but enjoyed a remarkably stable run for a live service FPS game with minimal "falling off a cliff" retention drop-offs.

Battlefield 2042‘s Failure Makes BF5‘s Reception Look Strong

The catastrophic failure of EA‘s recent franchise entry Battlefield 2042 has cast further positive light on Battlefield 5‘s mixed but non-disastrous performance.

• As of Feb 2023, Battlefield 2042 averages ~2k players after plummeting 99% from launch
• Reviews sit at abysmal critic/user scores of 2.3 out 10, the worst in 30+ year franchise history
• DICE and EA have had to scale back post-launch support plans significantly due to low engagement

In context, Battlefield 5 was essentially a runaway success story next to the dumpster fire that was Battlefield 2042‘s launch and retention. This chart says it all:

Seeing the disaster that was 2042 unfold makes 7M+ sales and years of support for BF5 feel impressive by comparison within the franchise.

Verdict: Not a Smash Hit, But No Market Failure Either

Battlefield 5 did not meet publisher EA‘s steep commercial expectations and receive the same critical/community acclaim as franchise high points like Battlefield 3, Battlefield 4, or Battlefield 1. In that sense, it underwhelmed given hopes.

However, selling over 7 million units to remain a steady top 10 shooter and maintaining strong player counts 3+ years post launch does not constitute an outright flop in my view as a gaming industry analyst.

It wasn‘t a smash success on par with Call of Duty or the glory days of Battlefield, but it equally didn‘t bomb and die on arrival like 2042. Lukewarm reception but an engaged core player base signals respectable performance rather than historic failure.

So in summary – Battlefield 5 was not a smash hit, but it equally didn‘t completely fail with players & critics either based on a holistic look at evidence. Its reception falls somewhere safely between breakout success and franchise-killing flop. Underwhelming given sky high hopes, but definitively not a catastrophic market failure.

Those are my in-depth, data-backed takes on Battlefield 5‘s commercial and critical performance. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!