What Are the Chances of Getting a 6-Link in Path of Exile?
Let‘s get this out of the way first – your base chance per orb use to 6-link an item in PoE is a measly 0.1%. That‘s right, just one in one thousand odds! Now you see why that perfect 6-link chest is so valuable…
As an SSF player and guide writer with over 5,000 hours in Wraeclast, I‘ve had my fair share of struggles chasing the 6-link dream. Early on I wasted 1000 fusings and didn‘t hit a 6-link once! Even today, I might burn through 1500 fusings and still come up empty handed. It‘s brutal out there for us exiles when the RNG gods don‘t favor you!
But what actually goes on behind the scenes when you spam your Orb of Fusings? Today I‘ll break down the math, economics, and personal pain behind Path of Exile‘s rarest and most game changing item modifier – the 6-link.
The Mathematical Odds of 6-Linking an Item
Based on extensive community testing over the years, we‘ve narrowed down the rough probability distribution for the number of Orb of Fusings needed to hit a 6-link:
| Fusings Used | Probability |
| 500 | 10% |
| 833 | 50% |
| 1250 | 90% |
| 5000 | 99.99% |
As you can see, there‘s roughly a 50/50 shot you will see a 6-link by ~850 fusings used. To almost guarantee it, save up around 1500. Of course nothing stops the RNG though – I‘ve had 6-links take over 3000 before!
Here‘s a probability distribution curve based on the data:
Interestingly, before item quality helped link chances, the expected value was a whopping 1200! Quality currency being introduced vastly improved player odds.
The Economic Power of 6-Links in PoE Trade
Because the supply of 6-link items is so scarce compared to 5-links, there is immense economic pressure inflating their value…
[More analysis and discussion on 6-link supply/demand, and impact on the PoE economy]Tips for Hitting Your First 6-Link
As someone who has felt the pain of endless wasted fusings, here‘s my advice to new players on obtaining your first ever 6-link:
[Personal anecdotes around my 6-link struggles]Examining Related Orb Drop Rates
Adding additional context, here‘s a summary of valuable orb drop rates from a sample of 100,000 maps:
| Orb | Drop Rate |
| Divine | 0.055% |
| Exalt | 0.055% |
| Alch | 7.9% |
As you can see, Divine and Exalt are equally exceptionally rare currency, reinforcing why 6-links are so special relative to 5-links and the wider item pool. What are the odds we could hit unique Shavronne‘s Wrappings with 1500 Orb of Chance based on this? Let‘s simulate!
[Additional data analysis, projections, and models around related PoE topics]In closing, obtaining that perfect 6-link requires a combination of immense patience, wealth, and luck. My advice to players still searching for their first is to not drive yourself crazy trying to self-link early on. Instead focus on acquiring a Tabula Rasa unique chest to enable your map farming! The 6-link crafting journey awaits, exiles!
