What are the odds of getting 100 IV Shadow Pokémon?

Hey trainers! As an avid Pokémon GO gamer and content creator, I wanted to provide the definitive guide to the odds and inner workings behind catching the elusive perfect 100% IV Shadow Pokémon. I‘ve compiled the hard numbers and percentages so you can better understand just how rare these are. Get ready for some intense stats!

The Base Odds: 1 in 4,096

First, let‘s break down the basics. A Pokémon‘s IVs (Individual Values) range from 0 to 15 for each of the three stats: Attack, Defense, and Stamina. For any individual stat to be perfect, the odds are 1 in 16 of hitting 15.

To achieve 100% perfection across all 3 categories, you need to hit the lucky number on each one. The math works out to:

Odds of 15 Attack IV = 1 in 16 
Odds of 15 Defense IV = 1 in 16
Odds of 15 Stamina IV = 1 in 16

Combined Odds = 1/16 * 1/16 * 1/16 = 1 in 4,096

So in numerical terms, you have a 0.0244% base chance – or roughly 1 in 4,000 – of catching a 100% IV Shadow. Definitely rare!

How Species and Origin Impacts Odds

Now those base odds can fluctuate slightly depending on how you encounter the Shadow Pokémon. Here‘s a comparison across the various methods:

As you can see, scoring a perfect IV Shadow Legendary from Giovanni or a Rocket Leader provides the best chances over simply battling Grunts. Lucky friend trades also offer a big improvement!

Estimated Encounters Needed

Alright, let‘s get into some more detailed stat geekery! Given the base 1 in 4,096 chance, we can forecast roughly how many Shadow encounters you would need to have a 50%, 80%, 95%, and 99% chance at that coveted 100% IV specimen:

50% chance: 4,747 encounters
80% chance: 9,865 encounters  
95% chance: 14,590 encounters
99% chance: 20,400 encounters

So for example, if you catch 20,400 Shadows (and purify/transfer the bad ones), you would expect to have seen 1 that hits 100% IV along the way. Still an insane amount of catching to get to 99% confidence though!

The Hunt so Far: My Personal Numbers

As a numbers guy, I‘ve been tracking all my Shadow hunting data in a spreadsheet. So far, I‘ve encountered 7,219 Shadow Pokémon spanning 2 years of playing:

• 3,102 from Grunts
• 1,867 from Leaders
• 2,250 from Giovanni/Radars

That‘s over 20 hours of straight catching alone! However, still no perfect one as of 2023. Statistically I have about a 68% chance so far. The hunt continues!

I have managed to score a 98% Shadow Metagross and 96% Shadow Salamence. So close yet so far from greatness! Maybe lucky trade will come through eventually.

Parting Tips from a Shadow Hunter

To wrap things up, let me impart some wisdom if you too wish to pursue this masochistic journey of hunting the ultra rare 100% IV Shadow:

• Catch everything – numbers game so volume is key!
• Purify the bad ones – transfer anything under 82% to improve odds.
• Trade with lucky friends – that IV floor really helps!
• Just enjoy the hunt! Don‘t drive yourself crazy chasing perfection.

Let me know if you have any other questions trainers! Maybe I‘ll finally catch my white whale by the time I hit 10K Shadow encounters. Until next time, may the IV odds be ever in your favor.