What Are the Shiny Odds in Pokémon GO Raids?

In Pokémon GO, the base shiny rate across all standard wild spawns is estimated to be around 1 in 500, or 0.2%. However, various encounter types including raids, eggs, research tasks, and more have modified rates to make shinies more attainable. In this guide, we will analyze the boosted odds in raids to quantify exactly how likely you are to catch these rare variants from your raid battles.

Baseline Shiny Rates in Pokémon GO

First, let‘s establish the standard shiny rate that Trainers encounter through normal gameplay:

• Wild spawns – 1 in 500 chance, or 0.2%
• Weekly Research Breakthrough – Around 1 in 60 chance, or 1.7%
• Eggs (non-event) – Believed to be full odds at 1 in 500 base rate

So when you click on any regular wild Pokémon, a conservative estimate is that there‘s only a 0.2% probability it will generate as shiny on the encounter screen. Not great odds if you want to sustainably hunt shinies through random catches alone.

That‘s why we have…raids!

Shiny Rates in Normal Raid Encounters

The Silph Researchers have chronicled boosted shiny rates for Pokémon obtained by completing Tier 1-5 raids. Their numbers indicate the rate falls around:

• Normal Raids – 1 in 20 chance, or 5% odds

For example, during a raid event featuring Aerodactyl throughout May 2021, researchers determined the shiny rate for Aerodactyl was somewhere between 1 in 17 to 1 in 25 across a sample size of around 600 raids. In other words – slightly better than the estimated 1 in 20 baseline.

Compared to the full odds wild rate of 0.2%, normal raids give you around a 5% chance of scoring a shiny! While still rare, these are pretty favorable odds in the Pokémon GO shiny hunting world.

Shiny Rates For Legendary Pokémon Raids

Research shows that legendary raid encounters like Tapu Koko or Mewtwo retain the same boosted odds:

• Legendary Raids – 1 in 20 chance, around 5%

During the Tapu Lele raid rotation in early 2022, data indicated a shiny rate close to the expected 1 in 20 benchmark across thousands of raids. The statistics clearly demonstrate that legendary raids keep the odds consistently boosted.

Challenging these high-tier raids with communities can be instrumental if you want to encounter elusive shinies like Golden Mewtwo. Connecting with other hunters substantially increases your total shiny opportunities across a raid rotation compared to solo raiding.

Mega Raid Shiny Rates

Interestingly, mega raids like Mega Venusaur and the rotating other mega evolved forms have their odds of yielding shinies dialed down slightly:

• Mega Raids – 1 in 60 chance, around 1.7%

The numbers verified by groups like Silph suggest megas feature less favorable, but still enhanced rates over the 1 in 500 base rate. Perhaps Niantic wanted to even out the better mega candy rewards with marginally reduced shinies.

Still, hunting for a shiny Mega Gyarados or shiny Mega Gengar during their raid debuts can be rewarding thanks to the stronger 1 in 60 mega raid shiny odds versus non-raid gameplay – almost on par with research breakthrough encounters!

Special Raid Events and Raid Days Drive Shiny Engagement

Occasionally, Niantic will host special raid events, often focusing on a particular Pokémon like Sableye or Stufful. These limited-time events consistently take shiny rates to the next level:

• Special Raid Events – As high as 1 in 10 to 1 in 25!

For example, during Stufful Raid Day in October 2022, shiny rates for the cute fighting Pokémon spiked to approximately 1 in 23 based on early reporting. Similarly, the Trapinch Raid Day in 2019 saw boosted odds around 1 in 35.

For special raid events, be on the lookout for any announcements specifying boosted shiny odds. By providing improved rates for feature Pokémon, Niantic can effectively drive raid participation and revenue during these promotions.

Estimating Your "Shinies Per Raid" Catch Rate

Let‘s put this all together. Assuming standard odds of 1 in 20 for returning legendaries and normal Tier 3 favorites, we can forecast your long term expectations:

• If you do 100 total raids, you‘d expect around 5 shinies
• At 200 raids, you‘d anticipate roughly 10 shinies
• After 500 raids, you should reasonably get about 25 shinies!

This back-of-the-napkin projection can set realistic targets given the boosted rates. Here is a simple probability table:

Of course, clusters of good or bad luck happen. But over time, the math should shake out to around 1 in 20 across a high enough raid sample.

Compare this to, say, just clicking on wild spawns for 100 encounters. There you would only expect 0 to 1 shinies even with perfect odds. This really shows the power of raids for shiny hunting!

Optimizing Your Raid Approach

Here are quick tips to master raid shiny hunting:

• Focus raids on event and raid days – Wait for boosted spawns, improved rates
• Raid with groups – More balls means more total chances per raid
• Keep counts – Track your raids-to-shinies ratio over time
• Target raid-exclusive – Some species like Klink can‘t spawn wild
• Sync good luck – Local lures or events may provide bonuses!

The Scarcity and Prestige of Raid Shinies

Catching raid shinies, especially legendaries like Shiny Giratina, require investing real-world resources into Pokémon GO – walking around, raiding remotely, buying passes, coordinating with groups. The rarity directly corresponds to the effort required.

And yet, the mystery and randomness of the 1 in 20 also begets excitement, prestige, and status from building up your catalog of these prized variants earned in battle.

So while raiding takes commitment, trainers are richly rewarded in shiny sought-after Pokémon thanks to the much friendlier boosted rates.

In summary, raids provide the single best mechanism to consistently encounter coveted shiny Pokémon in Pokémon GO. Take advantage of those better odds by maximizing your raids during events, hunting with communities, and tracking your personal rates over time. The shiny duo of Dialga & Palkia awaits!