What Happens if You Bet on an Injured Player? Your Wager Still Stands
As a passionate gaming enthusiast and industry expert, one of the most common questions I‘m asked is: what happens if I bet on a player who then gets injured during the game?
Unfortunately, the short answer is that your bet will typically still stand and be graded a loss according to most sportsbooks.
While brutal for your bankroll, player injuries are an unavoidable reality in sports betting. This comprehensive guide will explore why bets stand after injuries, how often they happen, which sports see the most injuries, recommendations for mitigating risk, and good practices for responsible betting.
Sportsbook Rules: Bets Stand Unless Specifically Stated
Sportsbooks account for injuries as a normal part of competition. According to official rules across leading regulated books, bets stand regardless of player injuries unless specifically outlined in the wager terms.
For example, a bet on LeBron James to score 30+ points will still be graded a loss if he hits 29 points then exits with injury. Specific bet offers may void wagers if a player gets injured before a certain point, but generally injury does not alter settlement.
Leading books don‘t void bets solely based on player injuries [1]
This applies to both spread/moneyline bets on game outcomes and individual player prop wagers. Books aim to avoid what‘s known as "selective risk management", allowing customers to only keep winning wagers.
How Often Do Player Injuries Happen in Major US Sports?
Player injuries inevitably play a major role in shaping seasons across every professional sport, despite health and safety advances. Exact rates fluctuate annually, but some key figures:
NBA
- 11-15% of players miss games every season [2]
- 5-6% miss more than 20 games per 36-game season [2]
NFL
- Roughly 6 injuries occur per game across both teams [3]
- Over 500+ player injuries logged annually [3]
MLB
- Teams average roughly 12 players on the injured list per season [4]
- Pitchers specifically average 4 separate IL stints yearly [4]
Data shows player injuries happen every season across major US pro leagues [2][3][4]
As these injury rates show, bettors must account for potential absences in their strategies. Next we‘ll explore some common scenarios and impacts when a player gets hurt.
Player Injury Scenarios and Betting Impact
While losing a key contributor is tough for any team, the specific impacts for bettors depends on the timing, severity, position, and bet type involving the injured player.
Early Game Injuries
Injuries occurring early in games typically have the most direct impact. Bets on individual player props immediately lose value if that player exits early. For example, a bet on Russel Westbrook to record a triple double by securing 10+ points becomes unlikely if he exits in the 1st quarter with just 5 points.
On the other side, an injury to a star like Kevin Durant early in a game can completely swing the outlook and betting line. His absence impacts scoring ability and allows opponents to better focus defense elsewhere.
Late Game Injuries
In contrast, if a star player exits late in a lopsided game, either due to injury, rest, or blowout, the impact on wagers is minimized. Player prop bets stand if already clinched – for example, a bet on Steph Curry to make 4+ three pointers still cashes if he hits 5 threes then exits injury in the 4th quarter.
Prop bets stand if already clinched prior to injury [5]
Similarly, bets on game spreads or moneylines won‘t void if an outcome seems largely determined late into action. Sportsbooks can adjust live lines if injury shifts dynamics.
Positional Injury Impacts
Injury impact also depends heavily on the affected player‘s position and role. Losing a star quarterback in football most significantly sways game outcomes and line movement. Backup QBs often pale in comparison to entrenched starters skill-wise.
Meanwhile, in basketball losing any of 5 rotational players impacts scoring flow and matchups. But hockey teams roll 4 forward lines with less dropoff to backups, minimizing individual injury shifts.
Recommendations for Bettors Around Injuries
While unavoidable, bettors can take certain approaches to help mitigate injury risks:
Wait to place individual player prop bets
- Closer to lock allows assessing late injury news
- Don‘t bet large on volatile futures props
Avoid including players in teasers/parlays
- One injury can ruin the entire bet
Compare books‘ alternate lines
- Find best payouts for adjusted spread/totals
Take early cashout if offered
- Don‘t let a lead completely evaporate
Shop for best odds
- Maximizes profitable winning bets
Responsible Betting With Injury Impacts in Mind
While injuries bringing a poor beat are frustrating, such unpredictable moments are inevitable across sports betting. Maintaining responsible betting habits is crucial:
- Only wager amounts you can comfortably lose as entertainment
- Avoid emotionally-driven chase bets after losses
- Monitor time and money invested
- Remember that long-term profit requires enduring variance
By keeping these tips in mind, bettors can craft suitable strategies accounting for injury impacts and bet responsibly. While luck plays a role, sticking to intelligent handicapping and bankroll management wins out.
I hope this guide better equips sports gamblers to handle injuries – feel free to reach out with any other questions!
- https://www.vegasinsider.com/help/house-rules.cfm
- https://www.nba.com/news/history-nba-games-missed-due-to-injury
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-adjusted-games-lost-team-units
- https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/mlb/injuries/2022/09/21/baseball-injuries-average-number-days-lost/10388658002/
- https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2022/02/09/what-happens-to-my-bet-if-a-player-gets-injured/
