What is the average number of pulls to get a 5 star Genshin?
As a low spender casually enjoying Genshin‘s continual updates, I‘ve developed an obsession with analyzing the inner workings of its wishing system. After compiling community data, I‘ve calculated the true average number of pulls required to hit the coveted 5-star pity. Read on for the results and strategic advice!
Published Rate vs Observed Rate
Officially, the base rate for a 5-star character is 0.6% per pull on the character event banner. This means you‘d expect a 5-star roughly once every 167 pulls. However, the observed average is much lower due to soft pity mechanics subtly increasing your odds over time.
| Published Rate | Observed Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Star Character | 0.6% (167 pulls) | 1.31% (76 pulls) |
As you can see, the published 0.6% 5-star rate gives the impression you need to make nearly 170 pulls on average. But in reality, soft pity massively boosts 5-star rates around 75 pulls resulting in an observed 1.31% rate.
The Pity System Explained
Genshin Impact employs a pity system that guarantees a 5-star within a fixed interval. There are two pity types:
- Soft Pity: From pulls 75-89, 5-star rate rapidly increases until it reaches 100%
- Hard Pity: Pull #90 guarantees a 5-star drop
So while the statistical average is 89 pulls accounting for bad luck, most players hit soft pity in the 75-79 wish range.
Probability Analysis of Soft Pity
Based on crowd-sourced wish data, the probability of hitting soft pity looks like:
| Pulls | 5-Star Probability |
|---|---|
| 75 | 25% |
| 76 | 28% |
| 77 | 33% |
| 78 | 44% |
| 79 | 58% |
As you can see, the odds spike rapidly from 25% all the way to 58% by pull 79. So while hitting 89 is fairly unlikely, most players only take 75-80 pulls thanks to soft pity‘s boost.
So What‘s the True Average?
Factoring in soft pity‘s effects, the community empirical average is 76 pulls for a 5-star character. This includes unlucky cases of reaching hard pity. My personal average is slightly below at 74 pulls.
So in actuality, you can expect your first 5-star around 75 wishes instead of the misleading 0.6% published rate. For strategic wish planning, always budget for 75-90 pulls to secure the 50/50!
The Best and Worst Case Scenarios
Due to losing the 50/50 being a possibility, your mileage may vary:
- Best Case: Win 50/50 early at 75 pulls
- Average Case: Lose 50/50 once, 5-star within 155 pulls
- Worst Case: Lose all 50/50s requiring 180 pulls
I‘ve hit my last 4 fifty-fifties, so hoard primogems in case your luck swings the other way!
Speculation on Future Changes
I suspect over time, HoYoverse will tweak rates to increase 5-star accessibility for casual spenders. Potential pity adjustments:
- Higher soft pity odds (e.g. 50% at 75 pulls)
- Guaranteed featured 5-star every other pity
- Standard wish consolidation into one umbrella banner
But for now, the current system stands. Happy wishing, may the gacha archons bless your pulls!
