The Most Winning Odds in Football are on the Draw
As an avid football fan and gambler for over a decade, I‘ve learned first-hand that the elusive draw offers some of the most favorable odds and highest payouts across nearly every league. While favorites and overs seem like easy bets, staying disciplined and choosing draws, unders, and underdogs can pay off big time even if you only win 25-35% of your wagers.
Introduction
Before we dig into the different bet types and odds analysis across leagues, let‘s look at why draws inherently come with longer odds and bigger payout potential. Unlike picking a winner or total goals, forecasting an exact tie score requires some luck no matter how much research you do. The inherent unpredictability means bookmakers slate draws with much higher odds.
As a real-world example, let‘s say Manchester City hosts Liverpool in the Premier League this weekend. While City may be a -250 favorite on the moneyline, a bet on +225 Liverpool or +1200 on the draw comes with longer odds due to lower probability:
2022 Premier League Odds Example
| Bet | Odds | Payout on $100 Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City ML | -250 | $40 |
| Liverpool ML | +225 | $325 |
| The Draw | +1200 | $1,300 |
In this scenario, City is expected to win over 70% based on the odds whereas the draw only has around a 7.5% implied probability. However, rather than chasing the favorite at short odds, seasoned gamblers target potential payouts from riskier bets like the draw which pay out over 30 times your stake!
Moneyline Bets
Now that we‘ve covered why draws pay out handsomely, let‘s explore the data showing these bets win frequently enough to come out ahead. Across european soccer leagues, the percentage of matches ending in 1-1, 2-2, or other draw scores lands between 20-30% each season.
The table below compares average moneyline payouts on favorites, draws, and underdogs with their win percentage across 10+ seasons in the EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, and Serie A when betting $100 each match:
Football League Draw Moneyline Bets 2011-2021
| League | Favorite Odds | Favorite Win % | Draw Odds | Draw Win % | Underdog Odds | Dog Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| English Premier League | -150 | 50% | +750 | 26% | +450 | 24% |
| La Liga | -200 | 55% | +600 | 27% | +500 | 18% |
| Bundesliga | -150 | 49% | +600 | 25% | +500 | 26% |
| Serie A | -180 | 53% | +650 | 21% | +550 | 26% |
The data shows betting $100 on the draw in every EPL match over a decade would yield a +5% return on investment (ROI) even with just a 26% win percentage. Compare that to losing 10-15% ROI trying to blindly pick favorites or dogs each match. The odds are in your favor targeting draws despite lower probability!
Spread & Totals Bets
Betting against the spread and on totals (over/under) work similarly. Since low-scoring games are less predictable, sportsbooks award higher payouts on bets for unders. Based on historical data, the best value odds boosts come on totals with lines set at 2-3 goals in soccer and 35-45 points for football over/unders.
The key is the risk-reward balance. Rather than trying to nail exactly how many goals Liverpool vs Manchester City see this weekend, take the over 2.5 goals at +150 odds for lower risk and solid +25% ROI. Avoid temptation from improbable 10-1 longshots and target favorable under payouts.
Factors Influencing Odds
Of course, odds fluctuate game-to-game and sport-to-sport based on injuries, location, weather, schedules and more. As a bettor, staying on top of updated team news and statistical trends will help you spot value opportunities sportsbooks may have missed.
For example, backing lower league home underdogs has paid off hugely in Cup tournaments when the depth of bigger clubs suffers late in seasons. Just ask fans of English side Wigan Athletic which won their 2013 FA Cup tie against Manchester City at 10-1 odds in one of the biggest historical upsets!
Final Thoughts
While dazzling odds boards full of choices may seem luck-based, sports betting success boils down to informed discipline with bankroll management as the bedrock. Draw bets don‘t always win, but just a few big payouts over a season pays for the inevitable close losses. Start tracking odds data yourself and before you know it those 1-1 and 0-0 draws turn you into a winner!
What bets offer you the most success? Which leagues or odds stand out as profitable in your experience? I welcome any questions from my fellow bettors and football fanatics at @Football_Picks on Twitter.
