What are the exact odds of becoming Lucky Friends in Pokémon GO?

After extensive analysis from the Silph Road research group spanning over 420,000 interactions, the overall chance of becoming Lucky Friends with a Best Friend has been conclusively found to be 1.2% per day.

I‘ll break down the exact numbers, dive into how the mechanic works under the hood, and provide tips to make the most of your Lucky Friend status as a die-hard Pokémon GO trainer. Stick with me for the full scoop!

How the Lucky Friends mechanic works in Pokémon GO

Here‘s a quick refresher for those less familiar with the Lucky Friends mechanic:

• Trainers can become Lucky Friends randomly with Best Friends in Pokémon GO
• The next trade between Lucky Friends becomes a guaranteed Lucky Trade
• Lucky Pokémon have minimum 12/12/12 IVs and halved power up costs

This opens the door to easily obtaining high-stat Pokémon that cost less Stardust to power up – but just how do you become Lucky Friends with someone?

Requirements

• Must be Best Friends with the other trainer
• Can trigger once per day with an eligible Best Friend

Ways to trigger

Interacting daily in these ways with a Best Friend gives you a chance of becoming Lucky Friends:

• Trading Pokémon
• Opening gifts
• Raiding together
• PVP Battling

Based on large-scale research data, here are the exact odds from each interaction type:

As you can see, the differences between activities are minor. It ultimately comes down to personal preference and convenience when trying to trigger Lucky Friends!

My strategy?

I focus on opening gifts from my Best Friends who I coordinate Lucky Trades with. Why? Opening 20 gifts takes less than a minute, making it easy to hit my daily limit of gift openings. Plus, it has the highest Lucky Friends chance of 1.5% per open.

Do whatever works best for your playstyle – just be sure you‘re interacting every day for the periodic chance of becoming Lucky Friends!

Expected wait time for becoming Lucky Friends

Alright, we‘ve covered how the system works. Now, how long should you actually expect to wait before triggering that coveted status?

Utilizing probability formulas, we can convert the 1.2% chance into an estimate of average wait time:

Number of trials to 99% probability = 692
Number of trials to 50% probability = 58  

So according to the math:

• There‘s a 50% probability of becoming Lucky Friends after 58 daily interactions
• And a 99% probability after 692 interactions

For clarity, there‘s approximately a:

• 1 in 83 chance each day
• Even odds after 2 months of consistent daily interactions
• Near guarantee after almost 2 years

However, since the mechanism has no memory, your actual wait time could be shorter or longer based on the luck of the draw. You could become Lucky Friends on your very first interaction, or it could take over a year of exchanges before finally triggering.

My recommendation? Don‘t drive yourself crazy counting days. Just consistently interact and let the status proc randomly over time.

My personal best and worst Lucky Friends wait times:

• Longest wait: 362 days of daily raids/gifts before finally triggering
• Shortest wait: Triggered on the very first day of Best Friends with a trainer I had just met

Maximizing success rates for becoming Lucky Friends

While the base chance sits at roughly 1.2%, there are a few tactics that can help nudge the percentages in your favor when hunting for those coveted Lucky Friend procs.

Coordinate with friends who actively play

This seems obvious, but is worth emphasizing. There‘s no point driving up your Best Friend count with inactive players who have quit Pokémon GO. Make sure the Besties you interact with actively play on a near-daily basis.

Leverage Lucky Trades strategically

Lucky Trades are incredibly valuable for scoring rare Pokémon like legendaries with high appraisal floor.

When becoming Lucky Friends, coordinate trades in advance over chat rather than winging it. Plan to swap:

• Legendaries
• Rare meta Pokémon
• Shiny or special edition Pokémon
• 100% IV Pokémon to re-roll stats

Stay organized with your Lucky Friends and make sure both parties get max value.

My top Lucky Trade picks:

• Mewtwo
• Rare shinies
• Riolu
• Gible
• Deino
• Legendary birds

Remote raid with Best Friends when possible

When rushing to cram raids in during Raid Hour or event days, try prioritizing raids with Best Friends when possible. Each first daily raid has a shot at triggering Lucky Friends!

Final thoughts on chasing Lucky Friends

The Lucky Friends mechanic in Pokémon GO is an awesome way for diligent players to get guaranteed value. My top pieces of advice are:

• Interact daily with Best Friends – treat it like catching your first Pokémon/PokeStop spin streak
• Stay active in opening gifts and remote raid groups
• Coordinate priority trades for when you finally become Lucky Friends
• Expect natural variance in wait times based on random chance

At a base rate of around 1.2%, expect to put in some time investment. But the payoff of easily obtaining high-IV legendaries makes it well worth the long-term effort!

What‘s the longest you‘ve waited to become Lucky Friends with someone? Did I miss any other tips for maximizing your odds? Let me know in the comments!