What Percent of Real-Life Heists Are Truly Successful? A Gamer‘s Perspective
As an avid fan of heist and crime games, I‘ve always been fascinated by the thrill and calculated risks of big virtual scores. But in the real world, the "successful" heist percentage is likely less than 20% – much lower than you might expect. Let‘s compare the actual odds to pop culture tropes and gaming lore.
Why Real-Life Heists Are Harder Than Games
In games like Payday 2 and Grand Theft Auto, even novice crews can rack up big cash scores in brazen raids. Maybe they get arrested or die occasionally. But overall, accumulating millions through daring jobs seems easy and consequence-free. New heists mean new big payout chances.
Reality isn‘t so forgiving. Bank robbery has one of the highest clearance rates at 59%, based on FBI statistics. That means almost 6 out of 10 get arrested quickly, without most of their haul, if any at all. Investigations for more complex or violent robberies also lead to high eventual arrest rates.
Even for robbers who successfully grab the goods, escaping capture long-term takes immense skill. Changing identity, vanishing without leaving financial trails, smuggling cash abroad undetected…it‘s incredibly hard for even seasoned criminals. One slip up means decades behind bars.
Famous Big Score Heists That Seemed Successful
Some of history‘s largest robberies demonstrate why big payouts often don‘t equal freedom:
- Dunbar Armored: In 1997, thieves in LA stole $18.9 million in cash from an armored truck facility. It was the largest cash robbery in US history. All culprits were later arrested.
- United California Bank: The notorious 1974 heist was an elaborate kidnapping plot netting $30 million in valuables. Again, every looter ended up jailed.
Even "Slick Willie" Sutton, who stole $2 million from banks in clever disguises, spent over half his life imprisoned. That‘s not counting deaths, injuries, addiction and other consequences either.
Estimating the True Heist Success Rate
If caught bank robbers reflect a 60% failure rate, what about perpetrators who escape initially? Some are doubtlessly arrested later through investigation. And difficulty actually benefiting long-term increases too.
Based on the above stats and stories, I‘d speculate the rate of living freely with millions in stolen cash indefinitely is likely under 20%. That seems high already given the risks and barriers. Some experts argue it could be less than 5%.
Either way, real criminal masterminds beating the odds are exceptionally rare – not the rule. But those outlier cases still inspire thrilling heist plots and gameplay despite distorting reality. Personally I love virtually trying death-defying scores and escapes too! Just with more reload checkpoints and extra lives compared to the real world.
So while the glamorous high life fantasy depicted in games and media is mostly fiction, it scratches an appealing "what if" itch. Succeeding against all odds to "win the level" by getting away scot-free with bags of cash. As long as I‘m just stealing virtual money for fun without real victims, I say bring on the outrageous heist stories! But I definitely don‘t plan on testing my odds on either side of a real heist scenario any time soon.
