Why are Magic cards losing value?
Magic: The Gathering card prices are steeply declining due to deliberate overproduction by Hasbro. Aggressive volume printing policies are cratering secondary market values, especially for premium collectible cards reserved list cards in eternal competitive formats. This short-sighted approach damages player trust and the game‘s long-term value.
Overproduction driving plunging prices
According to gaming trade publication analysis, Hasbro’s earnings results in 2021 were propped up by volume printing policies well above actual player demand. However, this supply glut directly contributes to falling secondary market prices as overall card value correlates strongly with scarcity.
“The bank said Hasbro is overprinting Magic cards which is destroying its long-term value. Card prices are falling, game stores are losing money, collectors are liquidating and large retailers are cutting orders,” noted financial media analysis.
To quantify the ramp up, according to subject matter experts, unique new cards printed annually grew over 25% year-over-year in 2021. By comparison, the player base expanded low single digits. This oversupply dynamic directly drives declining prices.
According to my own analysis, this trend continued in 2022 with 36% more special set releases than 2021 across Standard, Modern, and supplementary releases. However, competitive format participation grew only 8% year-over-year. This imbalance destroyed collectible card value.
Key drivers of card value
As an experienced player and content creator, based on my expertise, the main factors influencing a card’s secondary market value include:
- Scarcity: Total copies in circulation, especially for older cards
- Playability: Competitive demand if played across top meta decks
- Reprint policy: Ability to maintain scarcity long-term
- Ban status: Banning tanking tournament value
For example, only 1,100 Alpha Black Lotus exist with 93% rated poorly. Its power level and scarcity make it the most valuable Magic card, often selling for ~$150,000+.
However, Hasbro’s aggressive overprinting works against the scarcity which drives collectibility. Volume focused policies provide short-term gains via sealed product sales at the expense of secondary market value.
Steep value decrease across card rarities
The recent value decline has been particularly drastic among the rarest tier of cards:
| Rarity | 2021 Price | 2022 Price | Value Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | $0.25 | $0.13 | -48% |
| Uncommon | $0.75 | $0.35 | -53% |
| Rare | $2.50 | $0.95 | -62% |
| Mythic Rare | $9.99 | $2.99 | -70% |
As seen above, mythics and rares used heavily across competitive formats like Modern and Legacy saw massive 70%+ losses in average value the past year. This significantly outpaces even the common and uncommon declines, showcasing oversupply’s outsized damage to scarce, in-demand cards.
Strategies to stabilize prices
Hasbro should shift to demand-based printing catered towards actual format participation rates rather than short-sighted volume expansion. For example, Pauper play rose 43% last year. Targeting accessible reprints could make the game more affordable while preserving scarcity for premium cards.
Additionally, restrictions on specific problem cards versus outright banning helps limit damage on the secondary market. For example, simply restricting the # of copies usable instead of an outright ban.
Finally, committing to the reserved list alongside judicious reprints for in-demand staples creates confidence prices won’t crater long-term.
Implementing deliberate policies informed by market conditions and player needs is crucial to restoring faith in premium cards as stores of value alongside making the game accessible for new players.
