Why Is Lion‘s Eye Diamond Still So Insanely Expensive? An Expert‘s In-Depth Analysis

As an avid Magic player since the 90s and self-proclaimed card geek, I frequently get asked why Lion‘s Eye Diamond – a card released way back in 1996 – still costs a whopping $180+. Why does an artifact that makes you discard your hand demand a higher price than actual Power 9 pieces?

The short answer is Lion‘s Eye Diamond (or LED) enables incredibly fast, explosive turns through combos that often win games in Legacy and Vintage on Turn 1 or 2. It powers up degenerate decks to do broken things for a relatively low mana cost. But the fuller picture covers everything from playability and scarcity to the Reserved List and speculative investing. Strap yourselves in, my friends – we‘re going deep on why LED still costs as much as a week‘s groceries!

Lion‘s Eye Diamond‘s Role as an Engine in Powerful Combos

So what makes LED such a powerful card? As mana costs in Magic have escalated, LED remains extremely efficient at just 0 mana to play and activate. But the real payoff comes from building your deck around it to enable crazy fast wins. I‘m talking Turn 1 kills in formats like Legacy and Vintage where the best decks are always looking to go off without interaction.

By exiling your entire hand, Lion‘s Eye adds 3 mana of any single color for big finishers you can recast or retrive from the graveyard. After all, you just dumped your whole hand there! When combined with draw effects like Wheel of Fortune, Windfall, or Goblin Lore, LED allows huge card advantage to find lethal combos.

According to Mtggoldfish, LED currently sees play as combo fuel in:

• **25% of Legacy decks** – enabling fast Storm kills or reanimating fatties like Griselbrand.
• **13% of Vintage decks** – powering fast artifact synergies with Goblin Welder

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It‘s a key piece of winning quickly and beating counterspells or disruption. In my experience playing various Legacy Storm builds, having an early LED in hand typically means I can go off by Turn 2 at the latest without interference. The same holds for reanimating Griselbrand on Turn 1 to draw half my deck!

So clearly, LED is an important tool for winning at Magic‘s highest levels even 26 years later. Now, what about supply and availability?

Availability: LED is Extremely Rare in 2021 Despite 1996 Printing

Short answer – there just aren‘t that many Lion‘s Eye Diamonds floating around in the wild. According to MTG Stocks, only 19,868 were ever printed at Rare back in Mirage. That set predates even 7th Edition!

To give some color, a similar card [Lotus Petal] from Tempest (1997) on the high end had 122,872 copies as an Uncommon. And Scryfall scans indicate Petal has nearly double the number of grades versus Lion‘s Eye Diamond.

Now consider the actual number of LEDs left in circulation over 25 years later is far smaller than 20,000 prints. Damaged copies, forgotten collections, and table shuffling accidents all deplete that original pool as time goes on according to professional dealers I‘ve spoken with.

In fact, PristineMTG estimates only 2,500 NM copies of Lion‘s Eye Diamond remain in playable condition. And when over a thousand LEDs sit locked away in graded slabs, there may be fewer than 1,500 freely circulating the market.

For such an important card in Legacy and Vintage, that supply cliff helps spike prices astronomically as demand still runs high among competitive players and collectors alike.

The Reserved List Promise Ensures No LED Reprints Ever

Wizards of the Coast triggers passionate reactions whenever reprint policies come up. And nothing spurs more debate than the infamous Reserved List. Introduced way back in 1996, it originally protected a few hundred cards from reprints to preserve collections.

But LED remains on the final version of that list from 2002 after printing ceased. And Chief Communications Officer Beyer Beyer publicly confirmed an enduring promise to never print those cards again – not even special versions with new art or frames. For better or worse, Lion‘s Eye Diamond won‘t see any new copies enter the world…ever!

With players priced out of formats like Legacy over scarce staples, the company took heat for upholding such a constraint. But they accept some short-term pain to maintain customer trust according to Head Designer Mark Rosewater:

“I believe that restricting access hurts the greater accessibility of the game as a whole more than the benefit of collectibility to a small percentage of the players.”

So unless Wizards surprises everyone by walking back an extremely unpopular policy, supply can only go down as time marches onwards!

LED Price History and Future Trajectory

Given the constrained supply and eternal formats propelling demand, Lion‘s Eye Diamond commands staggering prices on the secondary market. But it took time to reach such lofty peaks according FragrantFowl, a writer atquiptic and iconic on Magic finance:

“Lion’s Eye Diamond was bulk rare for a long time. And by bulk rare I mean it was cheaper than a booster pack for much of its life.”

He shared the chart below showing LED‘s skyrocketing price trajectory taking off around 2014 and 2015 thanks to some key event results:

Looking ahead, expect Lion‘s Eye Diamond to keep gaining value with no imminent reprints possible. Some experts even suggest $500+ prices within the next 3-5 years if current trajectories hold given factors like:

• **More play if Lurrus gets banned** – LED combo decks less suppressed
• **Broader adoption in Commander** – casual appeal rising
• **Collector buying** – scarcity attracts investors

I‘ll personally be watching closely each spoiler season hoping Wizards surprises us with a relaxing of the Reserved List. But many prominent vendors remain confident Lion‘s Eye Diamond will continue climbing higher until then.

So How Does LED Compare to Power 9 Cards?

I still get shocked looks pulling out my Lion‘s Eye Diamonds at local game stores despite their hefty price tags. More traditional players expect the Power Nine and dual lands to make up the upper echelons of Magic card values.

And while true powerhouses like Black Lotus and Time Walk fetch higher premiums from collectors currently, LED compares favorably in playability. It sees competitive Legacy and Vintage play versus the banned Power 9.

Compared to the other legal Power Nine members, Lion‘s Eye Diamond enjoys a much wider meta spread across many top decks. Based on usage rates, you could argue it makes more of an impact on games today than Timetwister or moxen only run as niche includes.

Now I don‘t expect LED to ever exceed the cultural cachet of those iconic cards. But it demonstrates how underpriced Lion‘s Eye Diamond might look back another 10+ years as the pool of usable copies evaporates!

Final Thoughts

Lion‘s Eye Diamond endures as an expensive dual threat – coveted by competitive players and collectors alike despite its age. Quickly clearing hands while accelerating mana makes it the premier engine card for broken Eternal combos after all these years.

And with the supply permanently fixed at release quantities from 1996, LED continues gaining value each season. It takes up slots once held for Power in the highest tier of Magic rarities. For the lucky few holding these diamonds in their collection, expect to gat dazzling returns for decades to come!

What do you think? Are you surprised Lion‘s Eye Diamond still sits atop the heap over two decades later? Or were you savvy enough to stockpile extras after Mirrage block rotated out of Standard? Let me know in the comments below!