Why is MTG so expensive now?

Magic: The Gathering (MTG) card prices have been steadily increasing over the past several years, putting the game out of reach for many players. A number of factors have contributed to the rising costs of cards and sealed products.

The secondary market drives individual card prices

The secondary market, where individual cards are bought and sold, is the primary reason why competitive MTG has become so prohibitively expensive. Cards that see heavy play in popular tournament decks can cost hundreds of dollars per copy on the secondary market. For example, over the past two years, chase cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer have held prices over $80 despite being printed in a recent set.

According to a study by MTGGoldfish, the average secondary market price of competitive 60-card decks in non-rotating formats like Modern and Legacy skyrocketed from around $700 in 2019 to nearly $900 in 2022. Furthermore, about 75% of the cost of top-tier decks comes from just 10-15 staple cards.

Deliberate scarcity tactics drive the market

Wizards of the Coast intentionally limits availability of certain cards and versions of cards, creating artificial supply shortages on the secondary market and allowing prices to balloon. For example, special borderless alternate art planeswalker cards are seeded into Set Boosters at a scant 2 per box. Borderless Ragavan currently sells for over $150.

Rising production and distribution costs

The costs of paper, printing, transportation, and warehousing keep going up. As a result, MTG sealed product prices have increased substantially. In 2022, Draft, Set, and Collector Booster boxes and Bundles went up around 11% across the board. A Draft Booster box used to cost under $100 but now retails for $144.99.

Faster set releases and power creep

Wizards is printing new sets faster than ever before. 4 Standard-legal sets now release per year, along with supplemental sets. This amount of new material entering the market accelerates card churn and power creep. The most pushed cards for Standard, Modern, etc rotate faster than in the past.

For example, in 2019, Once Upon a Time was a $60 card in Modern. After getting banned in 2020, it became a bulk $0.25 rare. More powerful cards obsolete staples quickly. Players have to constantly buy the new releases just to keep up.

The effect on formats beyond Standard

While Standard rotation contributes to expenses, other formats are also getting much more expensive due to power creep. Here are some examples of average deck prices increasing over the past 3 years:

Comparisons to Pokémon TCG

Pokémon sealed product has seen similar price hikes to MTG recently. However, Pokémon single card prices remain steadier over time. According to PWCC data, only 16 Pokemon cards have ever sold for over $500. By comparison, over 75 MTG cards have surpassed the $500 mark, including multiple $10,000+ power 9 pieces.

Impacts on new/casual players

MTG has traditionally been viewed as an expensive hobby. But in the past, new players could buy a starter deck and booster box to play casually with friends. Now, with standard boxes over $140, even casual play requires a substantial upfront investment, especially for young players. This raises the barrier to entry, limiting the player base.

Social factors influence the market

MTG card prices are not simply a consequence of natural supply and demand. Speculators manipulate the market by bought out copies of cards they expect will spike in value. Then content creators and influencers hype those cards, creating a feedback loop. This exacerbates volatility.

The rise of third party grading companies like PSA for MTG has transitioned more cards from game pieces into collectible assets. This treatment as an investment vehicle enables and sustains irrational prices.

Ongoing impacts on local game stores

Local game stores operate on thin margins and rely heavily on sealed product sales to stay afloat. As costs squeeze these small businesses, many have raised single card prices to compensate, reduced staff, or even closed down, reducing the places players can enjoy MTG in-person.

Conclusion

MTG cards and products have undeniably increased in cost rapidly across the board. This appears driven by a combination of deliberate Wizards business tactics, secondary market speculators, overall production cost increases, and player psychology treating pieces of cardboard like precious commodities. While these rising prices have been great for speculators and investors, they price out huge swaths of the potential player base. This flies in the face of MTG‘s identity as an inclusive game.