Why is NBA 2K Not on Game Pass? Follow the Money

As a hardcore NBA 2K gamer and content creator, I‘ve been following this question closely since Game Pass emerged. And time and again, the same theme emerges—financial incentives rule above all else. As long as NBA 2K remains a massive moneymaker as a $60-70 annual release selling millions of copies, don‘t ever expect to see the latest installments included in Xbox Game Pass for any sustained period of time, if at all.

NBA 2K‘s Blockbuster Economics

Let‘s begin by looking at the incredible sales figures for this juggernaut franchise:

• NBA 2K23 sold almost 5 million units worldwide in its first week, the highest launch sales figures ever for a 2K game.
• NBA 2K22 sold a staggering 12 million units in its first year across all platforms.
• Total franchise sales for the series now exceed 141 million units.

These are blockbuster numbers on par with the biggest entertainment franchises in the world like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto. For Take Two and 2K Games, NBA 2K comprises a massive chunk of their entire business. Just look at these revenue statistics:

And the average revenue per NBA 2K unit sold is estimated to be around $65-85, when factoring in deluxe editions and microtransactions. With so much money flowing directly into Take Two‘s pockets, why would they voluntarily give up such a profitable position of strength by allowing Xbox users to access NBA 2K via Game Pass instead of paying full price?

Comparisons to FIFA and Madden

To appreciate just how different the financial profile is for NBA 2K versus other annual sports franchises, let‘s compare to EA‘s FIFA and Madden which have embraced Game Pass:

While still highly popular, FIFA and Madden have nowhere close to the monetization potential of the 2K series. And even with Game Pass inclusion, FIFA and Madden still saw strong software sales—just not on the scale of NBA 2K. This further reduces risk for EA while 2K clearly feels they still have too much to lose.

Community Sentiment Points to Willingness to Pay

In discussing this issue on Reddit and other NBA gaming forums, I‘ve seen a clear divide emerge. Many fans argue NBA 2K should be included with Game Pass to make the games more accessible and affordable. But an equal number happily pay the full $70 yearly fee because they feel the games provide that level of ongoing entertainment value.

As one Reddit user on r/NBA2k put it: "I don‘t mind paying full price each year. To me it‘s worth it as a basketball fan to get the latest rosters, stars, teams given how much I play. So I get why 2K doesn‘t put it on Game Pass."

Sentiment like this suggests that as long as a sizable portion of the NBA 2K player base keeps paying those full retail prices, 2K has little incentive to change course. It‘s basic economics—supply and demand.

Potential Financial Impact of Game Pass Inclusion

Hypothetically, let‘s game out what might happen if Take Two did decide to allow the newest NBA 2K editions to be playable on Game Pass each year at launch:

• Instead of selling 12+ million units annually at $70 a pop, let‘s assume only 25-50% of users now pay full price — cutting sales revenue dramatically.
• However, the wider Game Pass exposure massively boosts overall player count, with 5+ million trying the new game for "free" each year.
• But far fewer of those players end up buying VC and microtransactions.
• Estimated annual revenue drops from over $1 billion currently to around ~$500 million between fewer full game sales and lower engagement monetization — despite the larger overall player base.

So in all likelihood, NBA 2K games coming to Game Pass full time would actually reduce Take Two‘s profits by hundreds of millions each year even accounting for a spike in users – explaining their hesitation.

The Role of Microtransactions and VC

Here‘s one more economic factor tying into the decision making—virtual currency (VC) and microtransactions. Since NBA 2K18, VC purchases have become more aggressive, some would say predatorial. Buying the currency is almost a necessity now to upgrade your MyPlayer rating.

Based on public filings, VC makes up 30%+ of total NBA 2K revenue nowadays. So once again, 2K is highly incentivized to keep selling those $60-70 titles because it‘s directly tied now to monetization. Players who buy the game at full price are much more likely to put extra money into VC too. And that could change dramatically if moved to Game Pass instead.

Will This Strategy Shift Over Time?

While Xbox head Phil Spencer has floated the idea that Game Pass access may be tied to lower software pricing in the future across the whole industry, I don‘t foresee Take Two voluntarily slashing those profitable NBA 2K full game prices anytime soon.

However, if platform subscription services continue gaining momentum across console, PC, and mobile, it‘s possible that Take Two may experiment more with providing rental-like access. I predict we could for example see special short duration promotional windows that offer NBA 2K included with Game Pass—just with very limited periods of a couple weeks or so.

The goal would be driving buzz and attracting those diehard fans willing to pay extra for VC back over to full purchases post-promotion. Think of it like a free trial. But for entire NBA 2K games to be playable on Game Pass year-round going forward? Don‘t hold your breath waiting for that day. As long as too many fans like myself happily shell out $70+ annually for our basketball fix, 2K holds all the cards.

Let me know your thoughts on my analysis! I‘m curious to see if perspectives differ across the Xbox and PlayStation fan bases regarding this topic. And please hit subscribe if you want to catch future deep dives on the economics of the sports gaming industry. Thanks for watching!