Should You Split 9s Against a Dealer 7 in Blackjack?
As an experienced blackjack player, one of the most common questions I receive is: "Should I split 9s when the dealer is showing a 7?"
The short answer? No, you should not split 9s against a dealer 7. Standing pat with an 18 is the better play.
But why avoid splitting in this specific situation? Let‘s analyze the math and statistics in detail to fully understand. By the end, you‘ll have no doubts on how to confidently play 9s versus a dealer 7 every time.
Standing on 9s Against a 7 Yields a Much Higher Win Rate
The core reason you don‘t want to split 9s against a dealer 7 is it wins far less often compared to just standing.
Renowned blackjack expert and statistician Michael Shackleford, also known as the "Wizard of Odds", calculated the following win rates:
| Decision | Win Rate |
|---|---|
| Stand on 18 vs 7 | 64.8% |
| Split 9s vs 7 | 62.8% |
Standing on the 18 holds a nearly 2% higher win rate compared to splitting your 9s into two separate hands. This difference seems marginal, but over thousands of hands makes a tremendous impact on your bottom line.
The same concept applies to casino games like roulette. A difference of only 2% in house edge slaughters your long run expected value. Avoiding small leaks is crucial for profitability.
Why the Win Rate Differential Against a 7?
You might be wondering why standing is better against a 7 specifically versus other dealer upcards.
It comes down to the 7‘s bust potential compared to other cards. Let‘s analyze:
- The 7 gives the dealer a 42.08% bust rate.
- This is significantly higher than a 6 at 35.9% or 8 at 40.28%.
By standing on 18 versus a 7, you maximize the dealer‘s odds of going bust. There‘s still a strong chance they‘ll break compared to other cards.
However, when you split 9s into two hands of 9, you reduce the dealer‘s outs to bust. After all, two 9s equals less than an 18.
Protecting the high bust potential against the dealer‘s 7 is key. Splitting 9s throws that edge down the drain.
Avoid Losing Double Your Bet
When you split 9s, you are doubling your original bet and spreading it across two hands. If the dealer goes on to beat both hands, you‘ll lose double compared to if you just stood on the 18.
Look at the carnage that can ensue:
| Original Bet | $100 |
|---|---|
| Split 9s Bet | $200 |
| Dealer Beats Hand 1 | -$100 |
| Dealer Beats Hand 2 | -$100 |
| Total Loss | $200 |
By splitting, you open yourself up to losing multiples of your original wager. That stings!
Standing on the other hand caps your downside to just your initial bet:
| Original Bet | $100 |
|---|---|
| Dealer Wins | -$100 |
| Total Loss | $100 |
Avoiding getting crushed for double your bet is another solid reason not to split 9s against that menacing 7.
When Do You Actually Split 9s in Blackjack?
Now that the case against splitting 9s versus a dealer 7 is clear, when should you break them up into two hands?
Follow these guidelines from the wizards of odds themselves:
- Always split 9s against a dealer 2 through 6
- Split 9s against an 8
- Never split against a 7, 9, 10 or Ace
Here is a handy table to remember the right plays:
| Dealer Upcard | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|–|
| 9s | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Stand | Split | Stand | Stand | Stand |
Be extra cautious about deviating from basic strategy when you have a hard 18. There are only a handful of exceptions where splitting 9s makes mathematical sense.
While correctly playing 9s versus a dealer 7 comes up frequently, there are other mistakes I see players make all the time:
Hitting a Hard 17
- A hard 17 already is a strong hand with limited potential to improve.
- When you hit a hard 17, you‘ll bust over 80% of the time, according to a massive computer analysis of over 500 million hands.
- Stand pat on a hard 17 or higher 100% of the time!
Splitting 10 Value Cards
- Never split face cards or 10s. A 20 is an excellent blackjack hand that you should be thrilled with.
- The only rare exception would be advanced card counters in very ten-rich decks. But they‘re also keeping track of hundreds of cards at once!
Doubling Down on Soft 19+ Hands
- While doubling soft hands under 18 can make sense, you shouldn‘t double down when you already have a strong soft 19 or 20.
- At that point the risk of busting on the next card outweighs potential rewards. With only one extra card allowed, staying put is preferred.
Mastering subtleties like handling 9s against a 7 takes time. But avoiding these common pitfalls will instantly improve your win rate. Soon enough blackjack success will be like taking candy from a baby!
Or in this case, chips from the dealer.
Thanks for reading and may your next hand be blackjack!
