No, Bungie Will Never Get the Halo Franchise Back: An Expert Analysis

As a long-time gaming commentator and self-proclaimed "Halo super fan", I get asked one question more than any other: could beloved studio Bungie ever reclaim the rights to Halo? After closely analyzing the history, key players, financials and future incentives, I firmly conclude the chances are less than zero. Microsoft will never relinquish nor sell the crown jewel Halo brand. And Bungie seems disinterested in reliving past glories when exciting new worlds await creation.

Understanding Why Bungie Initially Left Halo in Microsoft‘s Hands

Let‘s revisit key context on the Bungie-Microsoft split in 2007. After developing all Halo games up till Halo 3, Bungie studio heads like Jason Jones wanted independence to self-publish new IP, not just build Microsoft‘s. The negotiations resulted in Microsoft retaining everything Halo, while Bungie departed with newfound creative freedom.

Crucially, Microsoft agreed to give Bungie a share of future Halo profits despite not owning Halo rights. That deal has paid Bungie over $100 million since 2007. So while Bungie leaders clearly valued independence, they knew to secure financial upside from the blockbuster sci-fi universe they birthed.

The Critical Role Halo Still Plays for Microsoft and Xbox

Why after having Bungie leave would Microsoft cling so tightly to Halo‘s rights? Quite simply, the Halo brand remains essential to the Xbox platform itself, driving console sales even during down periods.

Despite mixed critic reviews for recent entries, Halo still delivers sales Microsoft counts on. Halo 5 in 2015 sold over $400 million lifetime. And Halo Infinite should easily exceed $500 million once its full content releases. For comparison, Bungie‘s Destiny 2 took 4 years to reach $500 million.

So make no mistake – Microsoft and Xbox executives will continue using Master Chief as the tip of spear to sell gaming hardware and Game Pass subscriptions. The 10-year exclusive Activision Blizzard deal also telegraphs Microsoft‘s intent to lock up key brands, not sell them off.

Bungie Now Belonging to Sony Makes any Halo Deal Impossible

If a Halo return was unlikely when Bungie operated independently, Sony acquiring them for $3.6 billion definitively slams the door. Microsoft would never license its most iconic Xbox property to benefit a direct console rival. That would be corporate suicide!

Sony of course added Bungie to bolster its own platform ecosystem, not build up Xbox‘s. Expect Sony to fully leverage Bungie‘s expertise creating looter shooters like Destiny 2 to develop a Game Pass competitor.

Some Bungie fans hold out hope that Microsoft one day buys back Bungie themselves. But with a $3.6 billion price tag now, and Bungie leadership clearly prizing independence, Microsoft has no incentive to re-acquire them.

Financial Projections Show Halo‘s Growth Trajectory for Microsoft

Let‘s also analyze from a pure financial standpoint whether relinquishing Halo could make fiscal sense for Microsoft.

* Projected at time of writing

The table above shows lifetime revenues for recent Halo releases. With each subsequent release out-earning the last, Microsoft clearly has no reason to risk stunting this growth trajectory by handing Halo back.

I project the next Halo title in 3-4 years time could approach $750M+ with the right feature set and marketing push. And expect Microsoft to continue investing to expand the transmedia universe into TV and film. Again, why put those ambitious plans in someone else‘s hands?

The Perspective from Passionate Halo Fans

As an avid gamer myself, I sympathize with the large faction of Halo devotees who ache to see Bungie regain creative charge. After all, Bungie birthed our beloved Master Chief and pioneering gameplay that put Xbox on the map.

Many fans blame Microsoft management and the newer 343 Studios for subsequently "ruining" Halo – thus hope for Bungie‘s return to restore glory.

While Microsoft absolutely deserves critique for over-promising and under-delivering on recent Halo titles, we must acknowledge Bungie has also shipped its share of bugs and controversies in Destiny‘s era. Neither side is perfect.

Regardless, for reasons outlined already, all evidence shatters hope for Bungie ever developing a new Halo title. Behind corporate boardroom doors, decisions get made based on dollars – not fan forum petitions.

The Bottom Line

To conclude, I cannot envision any scenarios where handing back control of a multi-billion dollar franchise makes rational business sense for Microsoft. Halo remains far too strategically important for Xbox and expanding transmedia efforts.

Bungie also won its hard-fought independence only recently, and now enjoys Sony‘s deep backing. Expect their veteran team to focus efforts on Destiny‘s universe and new worlds beyond Halo‘s bounds.

So rather than cling to unrealistic expectations, I encourage fans to push 343 Studios and Microsoft execs hard to deliver the kind of epic, polished Halo experiences we deserve. That represents the only plausible path to see Master Chief‘s saga continue strongly.

What do you think? I welcome respectful debates on this complex issue facing the industry we so passionately follow. Please share below if you still see hope for a Microsoft-Bungie reunion I have overlooked.