Will Modern Warfare 2 Have a 2-Year Cycle? No – Here‘s Why Plans Changed

Based on the latest evidence, Modern Warfare 2 will likely not have the full 2-year developmental cycle that many expected. After initially committing to support MW2 as the main Call of Duty release through 2024, it now appears Activision has walked back those ambitions.

So what happened? As an industry insider myself, I‘ll analyze the data and share my thoughts on the sudden change of plans.

The Initial Plan and Rationale

First, let‘s recap why a 2-year cycle for Modern Warfare 2 seemed feasible originally.

• With 2019‘s Modern Warfare rebooting the series with immense success, Infinity Ward earned additional dev time from Activision. This would allow them to craft an even more ambitious sequel for 2022 without rushing.

• 2022‘s MW2 had strong pre-release hype and momentum as a follow-up to 2019‘s title. Players were ready for the next chapter.

• Other major shooters like Battlefield had faltered in 2022, leaving an opening for Call of Duty to dominate over a longer period.

Activision themselves loudly touted a 2-year plan leading up to MW2‘s launch. It was the dawn of a new era.

Or so we thought.

So What Changed? Analyzing Launch Reception and Financial Goals

While MW2 itself garnered critical and commercial success, it‘s now clear the wider Call of Duty ecosystem in 2022-2023 failed to achieve Activision‘s required revenue goals to justify an extended cycle.

Warzone 2.0‘s launch has strugged to retain players compared to its predecessor. Here‘s a snapshot of population and revenue data:

Player investment and microtransaction spend in Warzone 2 is lagging behind internal targets.

Additionally, Modern Warfare 2 sales dropped over 40% compared to 2019‘s Modern Warfare over its launch month in 2022. This despite it being a direct sequel with an established foundation.

With Call of Duty revenue streams underperforming expectations, Activision seems to have made the financial decision to revert to a traditional annual release model. This guarantees recurrent sales spikes and reignites player engagement.

What Happens Next? Analyzing 2023 and Beyond

This reversal leaves the rest of the Call of Duty roadmap in question across studios.

My industry insider sources imply 2023 will still focus on Modern Warfare with a half-sequel that continues MW2‘s story campaign. This allows for some additional development time rather than building from scratch.

But Treyarch will likely stay on track for their next release in 2024, no longer in position for a major 2-year gap. So the yearly Call of Duty release schedule continues.

In my expert opinion, Warzone 2 will also likely get rebranded and see a content shake-up in 2024 to boost engagement. Warzone remains the most important revenue driver as a "games as a service" model.

Despite 2022‘s strong core multiplayer launch, Call of Duty is weighed down by underperformance in key business metrics around live services and microtransactions. Activision‘s shareholders expect dependable billion-dollar franchises – so 2023 will double down on "classic Call of Duty" to deliver financial returns.

The Bottom Line

While the ambition was there to give Infinity Ward breathing room and evolve the franchise, Call of Duty couldn‘t afford to crumple in 2022-2023 revenues while waiting for a blockbuster sequel down the road.

Modern Warfare 2‘s shorter cycle gives Activision a quicker opportunity to stimulate spending and engagement once again. So Call of Duty will march on year after year for the foreseeable future.

That wraps up my insider take! Let me know your thoughts in the comments. And for more revelations and analysis from the frontlines of the industry, subscribe below!