Will the Red-Hot Nintendo Switch Eventually Surpass the PS2‘s Epic Sales Record? This Gamer Says…

As a hardcore gamer and industry analyst who has followed console sales for over a decade, I get asked one question constantly these days: "Can the Nintendo Switch pass the PlayStation 2 to become the best-selling console ever?"

It‘s an understandable query given the absolutely bonkers sales velocity of the Switch lately. With lifetime sales recently crossing 122.55 million units, the Switch passed both the Game Boy and PS4 to cement itself as the third highest-selling console in history, trailing only Nintendo‘s DS and the almighty PS2.

So let‘s scrutinize whether Nintendo‘s hybrid machine can eventually overtake the PS2‘s record-setting 155 million units sold…

No, the Switch Won‘t Topple the PS2 – But Its Run Has Been Legendary Thus Far

TL;DR – Based on extensive analysis of market conditions and sales trajectories, I don‘t believe the Switch has a realistic path to surpassing the PS2 by 2025-2026 when a next-gen "Switch 2" would likely replace it.

I know, I know. That‘s not the answer Switch fans want to hear. But before you grab your pitchforks, hear me out!

• The Switch is now in its 6th year on the market – when sales typically decline for aging consoles as new generations release
• New consoles like the PS5/Xbox Series X are increasingly eating into the Switch‘s market share
• The Switch still needs to sell over 30 million more units to match the PS2 – a 35% increase from today

However! Even if the Switch falls short of #1, its sales run to-date puts it firmly among the console elite:

For comparison, other legendary consoles like the Game Boy (118.7 million), PlayStation 1 (102.5 million) and Wii (101.6 million) have sold fewer units total than the Switch has garnered so far.

Make no mistake – we are witnessing the beginnings of an all-timer juggernaut console generation in the Switch, my friends. Now, can some new catalyst propel it 32 million units closer towards the Gran Papi PS2 by around 2026? Maybe, but the odds aren‘t stellar based on…

Market Trends Suggest Switch Sales Have Peaked

The core bullish thesis for the Switch surpassing the PS2 relies on the console continuing to sell over 20 million units annually for at least the next 2-3 years. However, achieving that increasingly seems like a tall order.

Here is a look at fading YoY Switch sales trends as competition has ramped up:

Hardware sales posting back-to-back years of declining growth suggests we have passed "Peak Switch" already, especially as Sony and Microsoft‘s latest consoles pick up steam. The PS5 in particular could be a major thorn for Nintendo, having sold over 30 million units already despite supply constraints. If Sony manages to ease production bottlenecks by 2023-2024 and unleashes the PS5‘s full horsepower, it could dwarf Switch sales going forward.

There‘s also the fact that no console historically has mounted a serious "comeback era" 6+ years into its lifecycle sans a major hardware upgrade. However, with the portable-friendly Switch still technologically capable enough for Nintendo‘s first-party catalog, a true "Switch Pro" variant seems less and less likely the longer we go.

Could I still envision scenarios where the Switch re-takes sales momentum? Absolutely – but market conditions present some stiff headwinds.

Wildcards That Could Boost Flagging Switch Sales

While doubting Nintendo has burned me far too many times, I still have reservations about the Switch reaching PS2 levels given cooling sales trends.

However, if a few wildcard factors break in Nintendo‘s favor, anything remains possible:

Monster First-Party Hits + Creative Bundles

Nintendo using exclusive heavy hitters like upcoming Zelda and Metroid Prime sequels to drive hardware bundles would be huge not just for new sales, but keeping current owners locked into the platform. Price cuts couldn‘t hurt either!

Supply Chain Relief Enables Production Boost

If Nintendo solved its chip/component scarcities first before Sony and Microsoft, it could help close the production gap compared to its rivals. Flooding shelves with Switches + can‘t-miss games while PS5 stock remains sparse would be huge.

New Hardware Model Sparks Renewed buzz

Again, a true Switch Pro seems unlikely now. But, introducing some sort of new flagship model in 2024 – perhaps with a larger Samsung OLED screen? – could attract both existing and new gamers to upgrade their hardware for the system‘s twilight years.

Admittedly, these factors rely on a good amount of luck for Nintendo. Nevertheless, weirder things have happened in this industry!

The Verdict: Enjoy the Switch‘s Epic Run Without Expecting PS2-Toppling Numbers

While the Nintendo Switch likely won‘t surpass the PS2 as gaming‘s all-time sales leader, its ridiculous success reaffirms Nintendo‘s uncanny ability to repeatedly capture lightning in a bottle console generation after console generation.

As a lifelong Nintendo fan myself, I‘m soaking in every minute while reminding others to appreciate what we have too; the Switch‘s run may "just" land it 3rd or 4th on the sales charts once the PS5 and Xbox Series X ramp up down the road.

But make no mistake – this console is already immortalized among the industry greats. We may never see another hybrid system execute its value proposition so flawlessly, while serving up all-time classics likes Breath of the Wild that push gaming creative boundaries.

So while no, I don‘t expect the Switch to ultimately outsell the PS2 when it‘s all said and done, it has already entered the "Best Consoles Ever" pantheon on total merit. Sometimes raw sales crown the true winner regardless, and the PS2 might remain the people‘s champ for a long, long time.

What do you think – can the Switch defy expectations and someday overtake the PS2? Or do you expect it to fall short while still being appreciated as an all-time great? Let me know in the comments!