Will Smash 6 Happen? Don‘t Count on It Anytime Soon

As an avid Smash player and content creator immersed in the competitive gaming scene, I don‘t expect Nintendo to release Smash 6 for at least 3-4 more years minimum, if at all. While nothing is official yet, signs point to the Smash team taking an extended break after the record-shattering success of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate before considering future games.

In this in-depth post, I‘ll share my perspective on Smash 6‘s murky outlook and why fans clinging onto hope for a new entry may end up disappointed.

Why Super Smash Bros Ultimate Is a Tough Act to Follow

Before analyzing Smash 6‘s prospects, let‘s examine the unprecedented popularity of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate across metrics like sales, player engagement, and cultural impact:

Lifetime Sales Figures

Smash Ultimate has sold over 29 million copies worldwide as of March 2022, according to official Nintendo reports. It still moves over a million units every quarter three years after launch, dwarfing all previous Smash games.

Most Played Fighting Game

Across both casual and competitive scenes, Ultimate boasts unmatched longevity and engagement. It‘s by far the most played fighting game tracked by services like PlayStation Network and Xbox Live year after year.

Cultural Relevance

Characters like Sephiroth and Sora were selected by Sakurai because they not only had mass gaming appeal, but resonated as cultural icons beyond just their home franchises. Ultimate‘s roster captures the zeitgeist with universally beloved picks.

With these insane numbers and mainstream popularity still going strong, Nintendo has set an incredibly high bar for success – one that risks being eclipsed by gamer expectations for any theoretical Smash 6 down the line.

Why Sakurai Stepping Down Changes Everything

The driving creative force behind every Smash entry has been director Masahiro Sakurai. He has guided the series from a niche N64 party game to record-setting phenomenon. But with Ultimate, Sakurai has made it clear that "his job is finished" and it‘s time to enjoy other projects.

Unlike franchises like Mario or Zelda that rotate directors between entries, Sakurai‘s solo oversight of Smash has been a constant for over 20 years. With him moving on, Nintendo would need to carefully consider handing off Smash to new blood instead of rushing another sequel.

Deluxe Port Rumors Likely Just Speculation

Some speculative online theories point to a "Super Smash Bros Ultimate Deluxe" port coming to refreshed Nintendo Switch hardware instead of an all-new Smash 6. These rumors suggest updated visuals, new fighters and modes, and taking advantage of DLSS processing and 4K displays on an alleged "Switch Pro."

On paper it makes sense – a Deluxe edition for new Switch consoles can buy Nintendo time before deciding on fully committing resources to the massive undertaking of developing Smash 6.

But in reality, an enhanced port has little hard evidence so far. Credible Nintendo insiders and journalists have shot down these rumors. And while graphical upgrades would be nice, Ultimate already runs smoothly at 1080p docked/720p handheld on all Switch models.

Without any concrete Deluxe reports directly from Nintendo or datamined assets found in Ultimate‘s code, this seems to be wishful fan speculation rather than actual planning happening behind the scenes.

What Might Entice Nintendo to Eventually Greenlight Smash 6

History shows Nintendo loves capitalizing on momentum with its core franchises. So while Smash 6 feels far off today, certain scenarios could motivate Nintendo to revisit the series down the road:

1. Sales Decline of Remasters/Ports – If interest in re-releasing Ultimate declines sooner than expected, Nintendo may turn focus toward wholly new content.

2. Need for Launch Title – Nintendo notoriously leverages main franchises as launch showcases for new hardware. A fancy new console could use a flashy Smash 6.

3. Esports Scene Pressure – If the grassroots competitive scene begs for fresh content through rulesets, tournaments, and sponsorship deals, Nintendo may cave to fan demand.

4. Staff Experimentation – Nintendo allowing a small "B team" internally to experiment with gameplay concepts could bubble up into leadership approving a full dev cycle.

Of course with Nintendo historically playing things extremely close to the chest, any behind-the-scenes progress remains speculative. But make no mistake – Nintendo would need incredibly compelling reasons to kickstart expensive Smash 6 production post-Ultimate.

What Fans Really Want from a Potential Smash 6

As an active member of online Nintendo forums and Smash fan communities for years, I have a strong pulse on what players would actually desire from a sixth Smash entry:

Most Requested Newcomers

Top Requested Modes

• Revamped Subspace Emissary (Adventure Mode)
• Online Tournament Mode
• Custom Ruleset Lobbies

Priority Quality-of-Life Improvements

• Better Netcode
• Hazards On/Off for All Stages
• Additional Fighter Costume Variants

These fan wishlists illustrate the ever-growing expectations placed on new Smash entries to push boundaries. While Nintendo could theoretically check these boxes in a Smash 6 scenario, each comes with massive dev time, balancing, and resource costs.

With Ultimate already stretched to support 89 fighters and 103 stages, going significantly bigger risks collapsing under its own weight – or worse, disappointing loyal fans. Nintendo must weigh these factors extremely carefully while managing expectations.

The Bottom Line – Smash‘s Hiatus Could Be Indefinite

Taking all signals into account from Nintendo‘s careful content cadence to Sakurai stepping back to the monumental expectations facing any follow-up, I predict we won‘t see Smash 6 for at least 3-4 years at best. Smash as a series has earned an indefinite hiatus after the runaway success of Ultimate.

Of course with Nintendo notoriously playing things close to the vest, no one but internal executives know Smash‘s future for sure. But based on over 20 years tracking Nintendo‘s decisions and speaking with well-placed sources, I simply urge fans to temper hopes for Smash 6 anytime in the foreseeable future.

Instead of clamoring for unannounced games, my advice is to enjoy the staggering amount of existing content already within Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – it should stand the test of time for years as Sakurai‘s magnum opus.

What do you think – will players need to practice patience before Smash makes its triumphant return? How long could you personally wait for Smash 6? Let‘s discuss in the comments!