Will there be a Nioh 3?

The Clear Answer Up Front: Maybe, But It‘s Not Guaranteed

Based on an extensive analysis of Team Ninja‘s recent comments, sales data, developing trends in the gaming industry, and the Nioh franchise‘s untapped potential, I believe there remains a reasonable chance of Nioh 3 happening eventually. However, it is far from certain, and almost definitely won‘t release for at least several more years if ever.

Fans should temper hopes for now and focus excitement on Team Ninja‘s next upcoming souls-like game, Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty, releasing in March 2023.

Nioh Series Sales and Popularity Remains Strong

Across both Nioh (2017) and Nioh 2 (2020), the franchise has sold over 5 million units worldwide across PlayStation and Windows platforms as of February 2022 according to Koei Tecmo sales data.

These figures put the Nioh series well ahead of several other popular PlayStation franchises like Judgment (~3M) and ahead of cult classics like Bloodborne (~2M). Fan reception has also remained very positive with both games averaging scores in the low to mid 80s on Metacritic.

In 2021, a Nioh 2 creative team member stated in an interview "…I‘m happy people want more Nioh." This seems to acknowledge the continued fan demand.

But Developer Intent Remains Focused on New Worlds

However, developer Team Ninja seems mostly interested in exploring new worlds and IP. In the same 2021 interview, creative head Fumihiko Yasuda commented, “We can’t say for sure there won’t be, but for now we want to work on new things using what we learned."

Team Ninja also clearly stated Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty represents more what they want to focus their creative efforts on next. Set in China‘s Han dynasty, Wo Long adopts some Nioh mechanics but with enough new combat additions and world-building to justify fresh IP. Some may consider it a "spiritual successor" to Nioh.

Notably, Team Ninja is expanding staff and roles, likely to support more simultaneous project development. So Nioh 3 in addition Wo Long sequels could possibly release concurrently in future. But their messaging strongly signals Wo Long represents the development direction and passion projects for current senior creative leads.

Market Trends Suggest Eventual Return Possible

Stepping back however, those hoping for Nioh 3 can find encouraging signs from recent gaming industry trends. Many properties like Battletoads have received surprise revivals after a decade or more of dormancy.

Elden Ring‘s runaway 2022 success also greatly expanded mainstream player appetite within the “Souls-like” genre where Nioh resides. In fact Nioh franchise sales saw a corresponding bump in 2022 as new fans explored Elden Ring and then sought out alternatives.

Yet many note worthy franchises never receive true conclusion trilogies. Just this year Sony abandoned previously popular first party series like Killzone and SOCOM.

But the Story is Not Over…

Critically, if Team Ninja ever did return to produce Nioh 3, the creative runway is long. Prequels exploring new eras and wars in Japanese history provide endless possibilities to integrate new protagonist journeys. One redditor suggests:

"I can see them eventually making something like a Sengoku era game with some loose connection to the first two games down the line."

And narratively, a true concluding "end of the Nioh Slayer" chapter could tie up unfinished plot threads regarding the worlds‘ interconnectedness hinted across Nioh 1 and 2.

Player abilities, weapons types, guardian spirits, and combat mechanics also provide abundant areas for refreshing innovation in a potential Nioh 3 project.

So in summary – due to continued strong sales metrics and fan demand, I won‘t definitively rule out someday seeing beloved protagonist William‘s saga come to a final close in Nioh 3. But Team Ninja is clearly focused elsewhere for now, which likely sets any fuller return to the franchise back at least 2-4 years if ever.

The Bottom Line

While future Nioh games seem far from guaranteed, modest hope remains. Patient fans may eventually get rewarded. But neutral observers should also manage expectations given the developer‘s messaging.

For now, Nioh devotees owe it to themselves to dive into the fresh challenges promised within Wo Long when it launches next March. And if lightning should someday strike again, William‘s unfinished tale still awaits closure…