Will there ever be a Halo Wars 3?

I don‘t possess an exact window into 343 Industries‘ internal planning, but as a seasoned Halo fan and industry commentator, my expert judgement based on over a decade following this franchise says: I expect Halo Wars 3 to eventually happen by 2025 to 2027 assuming Halo Infinite finds stability.

There is just too much upside for Microsoft to ignore as the RTS market continues evolving driven by competitive entrants, Age of Empires IV included. And the groundwork already exists to revisit the crew of the Spirit of Fire.

Below I‘ll dig deeper across multiple angles into the prospects, challenges, market forces, and factors determining if Halo Wars 3 becomes a reality…

Both Halo Wars 1 & 2 Performed Respectably By RTS Genre Benchmarks

Launching any real-time strategy franchise is an uphill battle these days, but Halo Wars overcame perceptions of accessibility issues for console gamers to deliver a pair of positively received critical hits:

These aren‘t groundbreaking sales benchmarks, but they did outpace contemporary RTS titles thanks to the halo brand power. And it proved an underserved console audience existed for the genre. Both games saw continued engagement via paid DLC expansions after launch as well.

Of course, the bar for greenlighting sequels has risen exponentially across AAA franchises in recent years. But within its niche, Halo Wars checks enough boxes to warrant consideration.

Microsoft‘s Publishing Portfolio Prioritizes Games-As-A-Service

The biggest obstacle facing Halo Wars 3 or any spinoff is that under Phil Spencer, Microsoft has strategically emphasized games with ongoing live service revenue streams – think DLC, battle passes, microtransactions etc.

That incentivizes putting resources behind the continuous Halo Infinite model rather than packaged spinoff titles like a new Halo Wars. So even with solid projected sales, it may not move the needle enough within Microsoft‘s portfolio approach.

However, with their enlarged collection of first-party studios after high profile deals for Bethesda and Activision-Blizzard, their capacity to support niche experiences like RTS and even linear single-player games expands over time.

Once Halo Infinite finds its groove and stability after the influx of new leadership, spinning up passion projects like a Halo Wars 3 becomes far more realistic to fit into their roadmap.

Comparisons To Age of Empires Show Genre Viability

Doubters should also observe Microsoft‘s enthusiasm for reviving classic RTS properties, spearheaded by Age of Empires IV in 2021. It moved over 1 million copies showing enduring demand.

And they‘ve continued greenlighting new Age of Empires content plus even remastering older catalog entries. That level of investment into a genre many view as fading or abandoned speaks volumes about their belief in long-term strategy gamer loyalty.

Halo Wars fans want the same attention Age of Empires receives. The sales indicate similarly impressive potential.

What Could Halo Wars 3‘s Story Be?

Narrative-wise, our last glimpse of The Spirit of Fire showed Captain Cutter, Professor Anders, Jerome, Isabel, and the crew making a years-long journey back home to Earth after the events of Halo Wars 2‘s main DLC expansion "Awakening the Nightmare."

Their return home would enable a third game to weave their standalone adventures back into the central canon events now well past Halo Wars 2 based on books up to Shadows of Reach plus Halo Infinite of course. That flexibility keeps future Halo Wars relevant.

I‘d expect a Halo Wars 3 plot dealing with unstable leadership and rogue faction disputes back in UNSC space once the Spirit of Fire returns. Jerome and the Spartans could take on missions revealing how the trauma of the war and Cortana‘s Created uprising impacted outer colonies on the fringes.

Captain Cutter‘s authority could also be challenged by opportunistic upstart officers in the unstable post-war climate – forcing him to battle internal betrayals as much as external threats. The pieces are all there for riveting new journeys!

What Would Halo Wars 3 Need To Thrive?

Given Halo‘s expanding transmedia universe, another Halo Wars sequel can‘t remain siloed like past games if it wants to thrive. Integration with wider canon would be necessary.

Certain standalone features of Halo Wars 2 did show promise for growth though, especially the new Banished faction led by Brute warlord Atriox – a breakout character who‘s become a pivotal antagonist.

Atriox‘s conquests away from the Spirit of Fire open lots of angles to explore in tandem with Halo Infinite events drawing attention to the Banished. But Halo Wars‘ best trait is the ability to tell more intimate stories compared to galaxy-spanning blockbusters.

Focusing again on the bonds between troops under Captain Cutter‘s command could form that emotional core. RTS campaigns traditionally thrive or fail based on their characters. Halo Wars already shone there before.

And inheriting Halo Infinite‘s Slipspace Engine for visuals, cinematic set-pieces, slick menus and seamless multiplayer integration would be huge technical leap forward. 343‘s in-house Slipspace tools designed for strategy potential can level up the Halo Wars experience to modern standards.

Add enhanced mod support, quality-of-life improvements, and gameplay innovations learned from observing the RTS genre‘s evolution and Halo Wars 3 has all the ingredients needed to succeed.

The talent and technology now exists under Xbox‘s umbrella. It comes down to leadership seeing enough market potential within the crowded gaming landscape to greenlight another rare console RTS experiment.

Halo Wars deserves that renewed investment to thrive. And somewhere down the road past Infinite, I‘m betting franchise custodians agree to revisit Captain Cutter‘s detachment once more!