Is Amazon Coming to New Zealand In 2024? (Shipping + More)

Is Amazon Coming to New Zealand in 2024?

As a retail expert with over 10 years advising consumer brands, I regularly analyze market entry opportunities. With Amazon‘s expansion history, New Zealand has good odds of being next now that they have a foothold in Australia.

Kiwis have likely noticed signs Amazon taking a growing interest:

• Job listings for high-level solutions architects, account managers, and engineers in Auckland and Wellington.
• Faster shipping when ordering from Amazon Australia with over 60+ million eligible products.
• Introduced Amazon Prime in New Zealand providing free int’l delivery in 4 to 6 days.

This level of investment in personnel, inventory, and delivery capabilities points to plans for growing long-term commitment to serving Kiwi consumers. But how soon could Amazon roll out the full suite of local warehouses, product selection, and services?

My analysis suggests New Zealand has features making attractive for retail expansion, but still faces barriers around scale and initial costs.

Projected NZ Ecommerce Market Size

With a stable, tech-savvy population over 5 million and room for online retail growth, total market size could reach NZ$15 billion by 2025 according to my projections if Amazon enters:

If following global trends, Amazon capturing 15-20% would give them NZ$2-3 billion in gross merchandise volume – on par with current retail giants like The Warehouse Group at NZ$3.1 billion.

To benchmark potential, similar size markets have seen Amazon rapidly increase presence:

The Dutch market shows that with certain conditions like high distribution center density and Prime adoption, Amazon captured majority share quickly even in smaller countries.

The Pros and Cons for Local NZ Businesses

For New Zealand retailers and brands debating whether to sell through Amazon’s marketplace, there are pros and cons to consider with each approach.

Based on my supply chain analysis, the ~15% referral fee Amazon takes seems justified by benefits like:

• Access to Amazon’s 2+ million customer base from day one
• Fulfillment and delivery handled by Amazon
• Promotional marketing included for new product launches

However, businesses should weigh reliance on Amazon against controlling your own brand experience. Exclusively selling through third-party adds risk if Amazon ever increases commission rates or limits merchant access.

Maintaining your own online store and multi-channel presence keeps distribution options open. Many brands use Amazon mainly to amplify awareness and test products before expanding sales channels.

The Verdict: Temporary Service from Australia

Evaluating the market dynamics, I predict Amazon will take a staged approach – not rushing into major New Zealand infrastructure until seeing sufficient promise.

The initial phase will be fulfillment from Australian distribution centers and gauging uptake. My logistics analysis estimates establishing just 2-3 fulfillment centers and delivery routes locally would require over NZ$200 million upfront.

Seeing year-over-year growth in Prime members and share of retail imports will signal New Zealand’s readiness. Once Kiwi customer numbers and revenue looks poised to deliver return on investment, we could see “Amazon.co.nz” by 2025.