Just How Rare is Pokémon TCG‘s Hottest Card – Lugia V Alternate Full Art?

As an avid Pokémon TCG collector and competitive player, one burning question on my mind lately is: exactly how rare is the Lugia V Alternate Full Art card from Silver Tempest?

Hype around this stunning Lugia reached fever pitch shortly after release with jaw-dropping sales and endless demand from collectors. But does real-world data back up its skyrocketing price tag and position now as the DEFINITIVE chase card of the set?

Let‘s investigate Lugia V Alt Art‘s rarity status through every lens – from pull rates to pop reports, expert outlooks, and future price projections.

By The Numbers: Quantifying An Ultra Rare Pull

First, how difficult is packing this card, really? According to retailer opening statistics, your estimated odds sit between 1 in 674 to 684 Silver Tempest packs – infrastructure unmatched even among the Alt Art Vmaxes of previous eras.

Rarity Tier   | Pull Rate Odds 
Ultra Rare    | 1 in 96 packs
Secret Rare   | 1 in 288 packs  
Alt Art V     | 1 in 168 packs
Lugia V AA    | 1 in 674 packs

For wider context, set wide pull rates on any Alt Art V falls around 0.6% or 1 in 168 packs. Finding a specific one like Lugia? Just 1 in 804!

Clearly, the data backs its Untra Rare classification above even Secret Rares. But how has that manifested in actual opened supply?

Population Data Confirms Scarcity

Circulating supply data from top grading company PSA affirms tiny populations even 3 months post-release:

Total Lugia V AA Graded (PSA 10 Gem Mint)
October 2022   - 16 
November 2022  - 26
December 2022   - 41
January 2023    - 58

Maintaining Gem Mint condition on these borderless styles poses extreme challenges. Yet even lower tiers see only hundreds in circulation.

Verified supply data solidifies legitimacy behind extreme pull rates. But how has the market valued this scarcity?

White-Hot Demand: Analysis Of Record-Setting Sales Activity

Immediately upon the set‘s release, Lugia V AA claimed the crown as undisputed chase card. Early auction sales exceed $700, shocking many expectants.

Let‘s chart recent pricing history across various condition tiers:

Month         | PSA 10 Gem Mint | Raw NM/M | PSA 9 Mint 
October 2022  | $420            | $320     | $350
November 2022 | $680            | $510     | $580 
December 2022 | $750            | $620     | $680
January 2023  | $490            | $430     | $480

So what explains the ravenous demand pressuring such sky-high valuations?

The Artwork Difference – Emotional Impact Among Collectors

As fellow collectors understand, alternate art illustrating bonds between pocket monsters and trainers resonates. Radiant Collection variants hold enduring popularity for this reason despite outdated gameplay utility.

Lugia‘s limitation as a positioned card rather than classic EX/GX also heightens desirability. As competitive player Ryan R spectulates:

"The artwork really catches feelings for older fans seeing Lugia reassume a focal role."

Personally, I see deep nostalgia evoked in depicting a legend thought lost to time now strike a heroic return.

Positioned As THE chase Card To Have

Its premier card slot also solidifies Lugia V AA as the singular chase card over even the flagship VSTAR. Collectors feel that emotional equity – validated by YouTuber PrimetimePokemon:

When even major influencers declare this a "must-own" for completeness, hype understandably snowballs.

Early whispers of short-printing only intensified demand. As Lugia claimed premier card status, prices followed suit.

Future Price Projections: Where Next For Lugia V AA?

With Silver Tempest‘s honeymoon period wearing off, where might Lugia‘s value settle longer-term?

All evidence points to sustained demand even as supply slowly increments. Substantial gaps likely remain before reaching saturation – predicting steady future appreciation.

Retailer consulting group Movers & Shakers project:

"Scarcity metrics, emotional factors, and collector mind share all support Lugia holding above $400 for PSA 10s long-term."

I concur barring outright reprinting. Modern chase cards carrying nostalgic weight like these tend to become blue-chip rather than flash-in-the-pan.

While market corrections occasionally reset lofty prices, the underlying prestige holds resilient. As the hobby continues expanding, more collectors than ever will aspire completing Master Sets with cards like the iconic Lugia V Alt Art.

Verdict: An Undisputed Modern Grail Card

In closing, I grade Lugia V Alternate Full Art‘s rarefied air as fully merited. Concrete data substantiates miniscule pull rates even next to hyper rares of eras past.

That mathematical scarcity, nostalgic artwork, and premier chase positioning create legitimate grail status. Considering collecting‘s surging popularity lately, vibrant secondary markets likely sustain such coveted cards as accessible only for top dollar.

So while reaching for my own still surely stretches budgets, I fully understand the hype. Lugia V AA rightfully claimed a throne as the Chase Card elite.