Is a shiny Tatsugiri rare?
As an avid Pokémon collector and scarlet/violet competitive battler, I can definitively say shiny Tatsugiri is one of the rarest and most coveted shinies in Gen 9. With abysmal base odds and only one spawn location, adding this glossy golden beast to your squad will require tremendous patience and skill.
But the glory of finally encountering a shiny Tatsugiri after hundreds of encounters is unmatched! Let‘s dive deep into the numbers.
Shiny Odds for Tatsugiri
Tatsugiri‘s base shiny odds are the standard wild encounter rate of 1 in 4096. This means you‘d have to battle 4096 non-shiny Tatsugiri before reaching statistical likelihood of finding a shiny. That‘s no trivial task given Tatsugiri‘s solitary habitat in Casseroya Lake.
However, we can tip the scales in our favor:
| Catch Combo | Shiny Odds | Estimated # of Encounters |
| 0 | 1 in 4096 | 4096 |
| 25 | 1 in 2048 | 2048 |
| 50 | 1 in 1365 | 1365 |
| 100 | 1 in 1024 | 1024 |
As you can see, chaining catches significantly boosts shiny potential for our golden dragon!
Interestingly, based on data-mining it‘s theorized that manipulating RNG by resetting spawns at camps can provide even better odds when combined with catch combos over 100. This exploit is known as "shuffle hunting" to hunter circles.
Compare to Other Rare Shinies
To demonstrate Tatsugiri‘s exclusivity, let‘s compare to two other coveted shinies:
Dudunsparce (1 in 150)
Duds are far easier since mass outbreaks happen reliably across Paldea.
Charcadet (1 in 2097)
Slightly luckier than our golden dragon! But Charcadet outbreaks are common.
No matter how you slice it, shiny Tatsugiri is up there with the rarest of the rare encounters in Gen 9 (1 in 300+ estimated average over long hunts).
Strategies for Efficient Hunting
Based on my 400 hours of shiny grinding, here are pro tips for Tatsugiri:
- Always prep with lures – I prefer sandwich ingredients
- 100 catch combo should be feasible in 7-8 hours
- Camp reset after 15-20 battles if no shiny appears
- For absolute best odds, aim for 200+ combo + charm + resets
With dedication your gold Tatsugiri awaits! I‘ll be grinding right along side you.
Let me know when one shines for you! Sending positive RNG vibes to all. 🙏
