Will there be a Golden Sun 4?

As a loyal Golden Sun fan who has eagerly awaited a new entry in the series for over 10 years, I have extensively analyzed the odds of whether Nintendo and Camelot will finally reveal a Golden Sun 4. While not guaranteed, there remains genuine hope.

Background – The Golden Sun Series‘ Decline

First, let‘s review the history of the franchise and where things stand today:

• 2001 – Golden Sun (GBA) – Considered a classic, with over 1.8 million copies sold
• 2003 – Golden Sun: The Lost Age (GBA) – Also highly praised, sales over 1.3 million
• 2010 – Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (NDS) – Sold only around 740,000 copies despite strong reviews

Critically, the third game fell well short of sales expectations. This is why Nintendo has remained quiet on Golden Sun for over a decade – they question if financially worthwhile. However, focusing solely on Dark Dawn‘s performance ignores important context.

Decline in DS Market Share Hurt Dark Dawn

Let‘s analyze the sales figures in context. The Nintendo DS dominated the handheld market from 2004-2009, but began declining swiftly in 2010 as smartphone gaming surged.

• By 2010, DS systems sales dropped almost 50% year-over-year (source).
• Troublingly, this was also the exact year Golden Sun: Dark Dawn debuted.

So while Dark Dawn‘s sales seemed low for the franchise, they have to be framed against the challenges of the collapsing DS market. It was worse timing than the easier conditions the GBA enjoyed.

Could Dark Dawn have sold much better in 2005 alongside the DS peak? I believe so – indicating there was still strong underlying demand for Golden Sun even in 2010.

Indie Remake Demonstrates Ongoing Support

Furthermore, the upcoming indie remake Golden Sun: Reignited is on track for a solid release this November. Scheduled for Switch and PC, this will combine the first two GBA games into one epic saga with updated graphics.

• As of August 2022, the Reignited Kickstarter campaign has raised over $24,000 to fund production – demonstrating real fan passion for revisiting classic Golden Sun.
• The developers have hinted additional unannounced content and surprises may be in store for launch as well.

If Reignited succeeds this holiday season, it could catch Nintendo‘s eye as hard evidence of ongoing interest in the IP.

Key Personnel Optimism Offers Some Confirmation

What do those closely tied to Golden Sun think? In mid-2021, series producer Hiroyuki Takahashi commented:

"We too are waiting for the day we can make the next game. We don’t know when or how, but we’d definitely love to make it." (Source here)

Then in October 2021, lead developer Shugo Takahashi added:

"I can‘t share concrete information, but I personally love the Golden Sun series and would love to make a new game.” (Source here)

Having the original director and producer both enthusiastic about continuing the franchise gives me confidence Nintendo will pull trigger to appease them someday. These creative leads remaining invested bodes well.

Nintendo Reviving Kid Icarus After 19 Years Sets Precedent

It‘s also worth noting that Nintendo has revived beloved franchises after even longer hiatuses before. The most striking example is Kid Icarus:

• Last entry was 1991‘s Kid Icarus: Of Myths and Monsters for Game Boy
• The IP remained inactive for nearly 19 years
• Then finally brought back with 2012‘s hugely successful Kid Icarus: Uprising for Nintendo 3DS

Uprising director Masahiro Sakurai explained that Nintendo gave the project the green light because "It was popular with consumers even though there hadn’t been a game in years." (Source here).

That consumer passion despite a long hiatus is very akin to what Golden Sun has demonstrated. Therefore, using Kid Icarus as evidence, Golden Sun 4 could realistically receive approval after 13+ years too.

Existing Fan Demand – Where Does Golden Sun Rank?

To strengthen this comparison, it‘s illustrative to examine where Golden Sun places among other Nintendo franchises in terms of fan requests for new entries.

In mid-2021, Nintendo France held an open poll for fans to vote on their most wanted unannounced Nintendo franchises. Below were the Top 15 placing results, with Golden Sun notably ranking #8 with over 34,000 votes (Source here):

This demonstrates that even over a decade later, the passionate Golden Sun community still mobilizes for representation. Outranking franchises like Star Fox and Wave Race shows that potential sales for a Golden Sun 4 should not be underestimated by Nintendo if they consult their more plugged-in fan feedback channels.

A Projected Timeline for Golden Sun‘s Return

Analyzing this amalgamation of data, insights, and precedents – I believe a reasonable speculative timeline for Nintendo approving development of a new entry emerges:

• 2022 – Golden Sun: Reignited releases to strong reception, with sales of 250K+ in first year
• 2024 – Emboldened by revival success, Camelot directors begin sharing 4 sequel ideas with Nintendo management through 2025
• 2026 – Nintendo greenlights production of official Golden Sun 4 for launch in late 2027/early 2028
• 2027 – Golden Sun 4 teased via first trailer at E3 2027, scheduled to release Holiday 2028 after 5 years dev time

This would mirror the intervals between past games:

• 2001 (Golden Sun GBA) -> 2003 (The Lost Age GBA) – 2 years
• 2003 (The Lost Age) -> 2010 (Dark Dawn DS) – 7 years
• 2010 (Dark Dawn) -> 2028 (Golden Sun 4 Switch) – 18 years

Of note, 2028 would also align with a common 5-6 year development cycle for higher budget Nintendo Switch titles. If Camelot can sell Nintendo executives on a 2027 fiscal year budget allocation for a new Golden Sun by 2025, we could realistically anticipate a glorious franchise return by the series‘ 20th Anniversary.

Review Scores – The Series Has Consistent Quality

To summarize, here are the stellar review averages across the entire franchise, cementing its legacy as one of Nintendo‘s most revered exclusive properties:

(Review score sources Metacritic and GameRankings)

Examining this superlative consistency only makes the radio silence from Nintendo since 2010 more tragic.

In Conclusion – The Flames of Hope Must Not Die Out

Evaluating all signs and theories – I believe the kindling strongly exists for Golden Sun’s fire to be stoked again in a triumphant sequel. One decade later, fan passion has not dimmed. Key creators in Takahashi and Sakurai still profess their desire to return to Weyard. The Kid Icarus precedent lends credence to a grand revival if conditions align favorably.

And so we wait, sustained by cautious optimism. The magnum opus that is Golden Sun 4 could still be light our way – in Valian years or an age hence. For now, we have a beautifully reimagined Reignited edition to carry the torch while Nintendo deliberates behind their curtain.

Alekusu and Karst – we shall meet again.

Isaac believes.