Will There Be a New Super Smash Bros in 2024? Don‘t Count on It
As an avid Super Smash Bros fan and gaming industry analyst, I get this question a lot: will Nintendo release Super Smash Bros 6 in 2024? With the series‘ storied history and speculation mounting about a new Switch model, it‘s reasonable to wonder. However, based on overwhelming evidence, I firmly believe 2023 is highly unlikely to bring a brand new Smash game.
Let‘s break down the key factors driving this conclusion with context from Nintendo‘s typical playbook.
Smash Ultimate Considered the Final Entry by Sakurai
First and perhaps most convincingly, Super Smash Bros Ultimate director Masahiro Sakurai has stated he considers Ultimate the pinnacle culmination of over 20 years of work on the franchise.
In an interview with Japanese publication Famitsu, Sakurai outright said "I‘ve made Smash as much as I can" and discussed relief at wrapping up definitive work on the series. He went as far as describing himself as "semi-retired" from Smash game direction responsibilities.
Sakurai is justly protective and proud of the Smash series as his life‘s work. Everything about Ultimate‘s years-long rollout with its marketing as the "ultimate" Smash game points to Sakurai‘s grand finale vision being fully realized. All evidence suggests the team has moved on from active Smash development for now.
Nintendo‘s Typical 5-6 Year Cycle Between Entries
Beyond Sakurai‘s statements, Nintendo‘s release history reflects a tentative 5-6 year cycle between new Smash games.
Looking at recent entry gaps makes 2023 seem a stretch:
| Game | Release Year | Years Since Previous Entry |
| Smash Bros Melee | 2001 | 2 years after Smash 64 |
| Smash Bros Brawl | 2008 | 7 years after Melee |
| Smash Bros Wii U/3DS | 2014 | 6 years after Brawl |
| Smash Bros Ultimate | 2018 | 4 years after Wii U/3DS entry |
With Ultimate wrapping up new content in late 2021, a 2023 follow-up would chop that interval nearly in half. While possible, hits would diverge greatly from the norm.
Perspective: Zelda‘s Example
For a sense of scale, consider gaps between recent landmark Legend of Zelda releases:
| Game | Release Year | Years Since Previous Entry |
| Ocarina of Time | 1998 | 4 years after Link to the Past |
| Wind Waker | 2002 | 4 years after Ocarina |
| Breath of the Wild | 2017 | 5 years after Skyward Sword |
Here we see 3-5 years between major franchise tentpoles, even factoring greater HD development demands. This aligns closely with Smash history.
A rushed 2 year Smash turnaround therefore seems doubtful. Nintendo allows signature series room to breathe.
Switch Successor Speculation
But with credible rumors simmering about potential Switch hardware upgrades or successors, could a new Smash target that instead of clinging to aging Switch hardware?
Unlikely – while upgrades seem probable to prolong the console‘s lifespan, true next-gen hardware feels years away still. The Switch still looks to be in its prime.
Per projections by Piers Harding-Rolls at Ampere Analysis, the Switch and revised models still have at least 2-3 years left as Nintendo‘s flagship device.
A replacement in 2024 at the very earliest means 2023 leaves nowhere for an unprecedented rushed Smash entry to land.
Smash Team Staffing Changes
Additionally, Sakurai‘s comments hint at staff shakeups that could slow momentum. He described needing to rebuild the team that created Ultimate‘s DLC content, implying original programmers may have moved to new projects after base game delivery.
In line with this, industry insiders like Zippo have corroborated that many Smash veterans have been reassigned to franchises like Tekken and Soulcalibur. Open director and programmer roles for "action games" at Bandai Namco lend credence.
Restaffing and vision reboot time must be accounted for. Paired with Sakurai‘s retirement, leadership changes could necessitate extra gestation.
Lingering Pandemic Impacts
We also cannot ignore lasting pandemic ripples still slowing release tempos industry-wide. Per recent earnings reports, major publishers cite 2023 improvement but acknowledge lingering disruptions. Smash‘s diverse roster would only compound asset access and logistical barriers.
Ultimately too many signs point to pumped brakes on new Smash momentum for now, despite pent up fan demand. Of course Nintendo could always surprise us – but my expert expectation is any sparks of Smash revival stay safely behind the scenes through 2023‘s curtain call.
What do you think? Does a 2023 Smash return seem realistic? Or is the veteran franchise bound for an extended timeouts before re-emerging? Sound off with your perspectives in the comments!
